Tatonka, a Mariners Blog

Don't get mad, get Wlad

2009-04-27T00:21:00.000-07:00

Welcome back, Tad. And welcome back me. I posted a fair amount last season, but stopped midseason as the Mariners hit rock bottom and my interest in curling exceeded that of baseball - and the only thing I know about curling is that it's essentially goofy-looking shuffleboard on ice.

I will be shocked if this team wins more than 75 games this year, hot start notwithstanding. However, I like the direction Jackie Z has taken the club. The puke-inducing, dumster-diving Bavasi days are over. Dice rolling no longer rules the decision-making process. Emphasis on the less "sexy" aspects of the game has come to the forefront, not the least of which is defense.

Despite Seattle ranking near the bottom in fielding percentage, there are sophisticated metrics presently available that demonstrate Zduriencik has put together a very nice defensive team. Here's one of them: http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=0&season=2009&month=0

On this chart, the M's are currently near the top in UZR, which is defined as follows:

UZR (ultimate zone rating): The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined.

I don't pretend to be an expert in this statistic, or whether or not it is valid. However, if so (and assuming it holds up), it helps to validate Zduriencik's team-building approach.

Ok, so what the heck does this have to do with the thread title?

Franklin Gutierrez was picked up in the J.J. Putz trade and has been a significant part of the defensive improvement for the M's during the early part of this year. He's got a good glove, solid wheels and seems to pick the right route to the ball, unlike the circuitous misadventures of a certain former M's outfielder. He's probably a great guy in the clubhouse and maybe even smells nice, too. He has a significant role to play on this club, without a doubt.

However, his bat might as well be made out of milk chocolate. I realize that he's just 26, but when you're coming off a .248/.303/.691 season after logging a career high 399 ABs, you'd better be good defensively. Couple that with similarly "meh" stats in parts of three previous MLB seasons and good-but-not-great stats in the minors, and it seems clear that you might be destined to be an outfield version of Willie Bloomquist. Pinch-running, late-inning replacement in the field, and spot starting might make more sense for Mr. Gutierrez, long term.

Wladmir Balentien, by contrast, displayed multi-tool talent in the minors, smacking 24 homers in his first PCL campaign, then 18 in just 275 AB's in his second. Slugging was .509 and .584, respectively, and OPS was .871 and .938. He even stole 15 bases (against four caught stealing) in 2007. His previous lower-level minors stats look pretty zesty, too. He doesn't hit for high average, but the boy can get on base, drive in runs, and has above-average power. It's time to see if he can do it in the Show as well.

Balentien had slightly sprained his wrist early in the year and thus was not available. Now that he's healthy, he needs to be given a chance to see what he can do. This M's team is going to scratch and claw for runs all year long. If Balentien is the real deal, he could give them a dose of what they need offensively and actually make Gutierrez more valuable as a true role player in the process.

It’s Hero Time

2009-04-19T13:22:00.001-07:00

This blog has been dark for the better part of a year.

Last year's the M's mis-management team turned me off so bad that I largely lost the joy of baseball. I barely followed the playoffs, discontinued my subscription to Baseball Prospectus and came perilously close to folding a 15 year fantasy league for general lack of interest.

But I like the moves Zdurenczik made this offseason and have been pleasantly surprised at the results of the team so far this year, so when someone offered me tickets for Friday night's Tigers tilt I took em. It was Ichiro Bobblehead night after all. Kate, my 9 year old, is deeply into her softball this year and was very excited to go with me.

Two things happened at this game that may be the road to recovery for me as a baseball fan.

The first is that I was very much surprised at the amount of emotion I felt watching Junior bat for the first time in 10 years. Those that know me may not be surprised that I would have an emotional response, I am an emotional guy, but the depth of the feeling surprised me.

A flood of memories came back. I was a fan before Junior of course, and I've got the Ruppert Jones baseball cards and Jim Presley growth charts to prove it. But when Junior arrived in 1989, it felt like the Mariners had arrived too. We had our first winning season two years later and were no longer a joke. Junior led to the winning season, the first winning season led to Piniella, and Sweet Lou led us to 1995. Seeing Junior brought back all of that and put a serious lump in my throat.

If me getting choked up over seeing The Kid was somewhat predictable, the second inspiring moment was completely random and totally unexpected.

Kate loves the bullpen. You are so close to the players, you can almost touch them. Other than the 12 foot fence of course. The sound of the ball popping in the bullpen catcher's glove is a definite "Wow!" moment for a 9 year old.

We made our way to the pen in the eighth and watched Brandon Lyon throw in the Tigers pen. When he got called in, we wandered over to the much more crowded M's side, but just as we got there a spot opened up, right on the mound end.

It was a little boring at first because Morrow was the only guy up and he was already warm, only throwing once a minute or so to stay ready. After two outs in the M's inning though, he started working pretty seriously. Shortly the M's made the third out and Morrow came in to close it out. We shouted good luck at him and Kate turned to go.

I held on for a second because I enjoy watching things in the margins. Sometimes you see some pretty interesting things during changeovers and after everyone else has stopped watching. In this case my patience was rewarded. The bullpen catcher flipped the ball Morrow had been throwing to pen coach John Wetteland, who made a beeline for Kate.

You assume that these guys are used to the crowds and don't pay any attention to who is watching them. They have been trained all along to be indifferent and aloof from the adoring (or heckling) throngs. But Wetteland had clearly seen us already, he asked for the ball and didn't look around for someone to give it to, he knew where he was going.

"Can I throw you this ball sweetheart?"

My normally poised and composed daughter, who talks incessantly, was completely speechless. Grinning, she could only manage a nod.

Wetteland points to the top of the fence. "I have to throw it over, are you ready?"

Kate holds her hands out in a fielding stance.

"Of course you are ready, you brought your mitt! Okay, ready, here it comes!"

The ball goes up and over the top of the fence and comes down to rest squarely in her glove. She stares down at the ball as if she has been given some priceless gift (Jonas Brothers tickets?) beyond measure. By the time she looks up, Wetteland has already turned to go. "Thank you!" we both shout.

Wetteland doesn't turn back, acknowledging us only by the briefest flick of his left hand in some sort of minimalist wave.

The grin on Kate's face is impossible to describe. The trip home was filled with as many details of John Wetteland's career as I can recall and a lengthy dissertation on the duties of the bullpen coach. She woke her mother up to tell year the story and called her Grammy at 7 am the next morning to tell her. I think she slept with the ball.

I don't know if I am all the way back. The Bavasi years have scarred me permanently. But the thrill of seeing my favorite player and experiencing the simple pleasure of a free baseball through the eyes of my little girl have started the recovery.

Kids and Disasters

2008-07-05T09:09:00.000-07:00

Hello all...I'm back from a good long trip through China and the Philippines, where I successfully isolated myself from Mariner malaise (at least until Typhoon Fengshen/Frank made my homeward trip an epic ordeal for the ages, and I had to read SOMETHING about the M's).

You'd think that time off would have improved my mood. I even return to find that the morons in charge of the organization decided to fire the GM and manager (yeah!) but not themselves (boo!)...and that the M's remain about as horrible a team as you could imagine. It has been postulated that a random team of AAA scrubs could win about 30-35% of their games in the major leagues, and here we have a $100 million dollar juggernaut plugging along at a .395 clip...truly scrumptious!

Upon my return, my family celebrated by taking me to see the local AA team on the 3rd of July (the team was away on the 4th, so this was the big fireworks extravaganza). So on Thursday night, we headed south to Chattanooga to join a capacity crowd at beautiful AT&T Field to witness the Lookouts vs. the West Tenn Diamond Jaxx (yep...that's the AA Mariners affiliate).

The game was plenty eventful, ending up a 7-6 victory for the visitors (yeah M's!). We even saw a little of the minor league talent that is supposedly Bill Bavasi's one positive legacy with our franchise.

-Matt Mangini: good eye, massive power (so say the long foul balls), massively long swing...but he avoided striking out at all, which was surprising.
-Mike Wilson: looked good, with a solid double, two walks, and an intentional walk.
-Joe Nelson and Greg Halman: showed batting-practice power against non-prospect reliever Mike Hrynio, whose 6.28 ERA entering the game was no fluke. (While warming up when he came in for the 6th, he did an unintentional Nuke LaLoosh impression, punishing the backstop, and not for the last time in the evening, with a pitch.)
-Mark Kiger? He's the guy whom the Oakland A's brought to the majors to reinforce their injured middle infield spots for the playoffs in 2006. He turned 28 two months ago, and yet he's starting at SS for the M's AA team. Yeah, we're loaded with prospects! A 1-3, two walk, CS performance got his season average up to .228. Yeesh.
-Lefty Justin Thomas looked interesting on the mound, although his results were meh. Some innings he was dominant against a not-horrible Lookouts team.

Actually, though, the most interesting M's-related feature of the game was that this year's pitching coach for the Lookouts (currently the Reds affiliate here in Chattanooga) is none other than Chris Bosio. BOZ! The team was holding an auction of the special pre-4th of July patriotic jerseys of their players and coaches (winner gets an autographed game-worn jersey), but I couldn't bring myself to bid the $85+ it would have taken to get a Bosio tent. Good times.

Perhaps I'm spoiled (last season I got to see real prospects Jay Bruce and Homer Bailey for a while; two years ago we had Joey Votto all year as the starting 1B), but this game really didn't seem to have the minor-league star power that I might have expected at the AA level for the Mariners. Oh, I know--many of our gems are still in Rookie/single-A leagues. Sure. Still, pretty disappointing. From the one game (extremely small sample size), I'd say that only Mike Wilson "looked" like he might be ready to move up. From the stat lines they brought into the game, it looks like 1B Thomas Hubbard, OF Johan Limonta, and C Adam Moore are having decent seasons, along with Nelson and Halman. No pitchers stand out.

I'm pretty reluctant to trust the Mariners organization with any hope until the idiots atop the chain are sacked. This game didn't give me much real hope for the future...but hey, it's just one game.

More sunshine and Pollyanna predictions from me later....

The Time is Right

2008-06-23T19:47:00.000-07:00

Bryan LaHair, come on UP!

Victor Diaz, come on UP!

Matt Tuiasosopo, come on UP!

Rob Johnson, come on UP!

Ryan Feierabend, come on UP!

You're the next contestants on "The Time is Right"!

Ahem, Lee? Want to do something to give Armstrong and company something to think about when it comes time to evaluate your performance for the remainder of this season? How about doing a little housecleaning to rid the club of dead weight and/or empty chattel, with these (and/or others) players in mind as heirs apparent.

No, the farm isn't exactly stuffed to the brim with premium prospects. However, until they are given the Daric Barton leeway the far superior franchise Oakland has employed this year (pointed out in Tad's post three weeks ago), nobody quite knows for sure what we've got down there. We know what we've got up here - the sorriest collection of major leaguers in all of baseball.

As bad as Bavasi and McLaren were, forcing them to walk the plank isn't going to turn this creaking, leaky ship around by itself. It's a good start, but the boat has taken on way too much water. It's time to start bailing. Can I make any more clichéd , seagoing metaphors? See how seamlessly I wove in that theme with the whole Mariners thing, then unraveled it all in the last two sentences? That's just the kind of guy I am.

Show the kind of guy you are and do something for the good of the franchise. Start by initializing the cleanup of Bavasi's mess. It's not like you're Pat Gillick, probing the bottom-feeders for possible talent to pluck away at the trade deadline. Oh, wait ...

Blown Away!

2008-06-19T19:40:00.000-07:00

Ready ... aim ... FIRE!

Bill Bavasi and John McLaren, shown the door by the Mariners over the past few days.

I actually now believe that a wholesale youth movement is on its way. And speaking for the majority of "stat geek" Mariners fans who never once believed the team was anywhere close to being as good as its 88-74 record last year, and thus by extension was nowhere near contending status as it was constructed this year, I can say this with a clear conscience: it's about freaking time.

The next GM needs to be a guy willing to build through youth and homegrown talent first, and when the time is right, supplement it with the right kinds of free agents. The fact that we have as many 30+ guys on our roster for a team that had one winning season in the last five speaks volumes as to the ridiculous way this team was built. Go back a few posts and read my quick synopsis of Cleveland versus Seattle, which really is an indication of the right way to rebuild (the Tribe) versus the wrong way (the Mariners). The Indians aren't doing well this year, granted, but injuries to studs are a big reason why. Prior to this year, they were a combined 48 games over .500 the previous three seasons, culminating in a division championship in 2007. We were a combined 16 games under .500, even with last year's aberration.

Pulling the plug and going entirely with youth - to whatever degree that's possible - will be unpleasant and is sure to dry up the coffers for a few years as attendance dwindles even more. In the long run, that's how you rebuild a team. Few can do it on the fly, and those are typically huge-money clubs and/or teams with very agile GMs. We're borderline there on the first order, nowhere near on the second.

Meanwhile, "Stand Pat" is riding high in Philadelphia. Welcome to the 1980's.

Blown Away

2008-06-01T16:51:00.000-07:00

In case you hadn't noticed, I started a rather lame movie title theme in my last two posts. Watching the M's in May (and now to start June), I'm compelled to use another one - this one being the Jeff Bridges/Tommy Lee Jones bomb squad thriller, not the British blow-up doll animation short.

Blown Away. As in even with acknowledged preseason trepidations, we're all blown away at how bad the 2008 Mariners are. As in how this roster needs to be "blown away" and replaced with kids who actually give a rat's ass about hustling and trying to make a difference at the major league level. As in how the front office needs to be "blown away" and replaced with baseball people who have a sense for judging talent and making smart baseball decisions. As in how managers who were chosen because of decades of baseball servitude and who start players like Miguel Cairo due to superstitions and specious reasoning should be "blown away" and succeeded by men of the type and quality indicative of a team that can afford a $117M payroll.

Let's make a list of who should be "blown away" (i.e. traded, released, DFA'd, demoted, whatever):

Ritchie Sexson (duh!)
Jarrod Washburn (useless)
Miguel Batista (a slightly more interesting version of Washburn)
Jose Vidro (no speed, no power, no mas)
Miguel Cairo (a shadow puppet)
Jamie Burke (nice guys finish last)

Sexson goes for obvious reasons: his bat cannot catch up to enough pitches to overcome his weaknesses, which continue to grow as he ages. Washburn's nearly $10M salary is far too high for a player who wouldn't be a fifth starter on a contending team. Ditto with Batista. Vidro gives you line drives, but nothing else. Cairo is an even worse version of Willie Bloomquist. Burke doesn't do any harm, but he's 36 and taking a roster spot from someone who might help the next contending Mariner team.

I know - few (if any) of these guys can actually be shed from the roster. But if they all could, that would be almost $45M evaporated from the $117M payroll, just like that. That's a lot of incentive to move as many of them for bags of balls as possible.

Selective "blown away" targets (real trade value):

Raul Ibanez
Kenji Johjima
Adrian Beltre
J.J. Putz

Moving two of these four would save significantly more corn and, more importantly, shed age from an already too-old roster. Only Beltre is below 30. Putz and Ibanez would be the two I would most willingly trade, if only because they should still have trade value (Putz' struggles notwithstanding) and would be the easiest for the M's to replace.

Trade at least two of Ibanez, Putz, Johjima and Beltre, packaging guys like Sexson, Washburn and Vidro into said deals if at all possible. Take back as little long-term salary as necessary and pick up younger players and prospects.

Replace Vidro, Sexson, Washburn, Putz and Ibanez with Clement, LeHair, Feireabend, Morrow and just one serviceable player returned via trade and watch this team actually start to rebuild instead of recycle.

Again, I realize nothing of the sort will happen anytime soon. We're handcuffed by an expensive, bad roster, and management will go down with the ship deep into the summer. It's inevitable, though, that some kind of implosion will be done. I'd enjoy this season much more if it would happen sooner, rather than later.

Philosophy on young players

2008-05-27T08:44:00.000-07:00

So we are fast approaching the "play the kids" portion of the season. In fact we are already there, its just a matter of when the M's braintrust wakes up and sees it.

I saw this quote from Billy Beane on Athletics Nation:

We think Daric is going to be a great major league hitter and we just have to exercise patience. If a time comes that we feel that a young player needs to go down to get some more experience, we will. But in Daric’s case part of becoming a good major league player is being allowed to go through some struggles. Very few guys come up and hit their whole career. That’s just part of becoming a major league player.

Of course it is folly to compare the A's front office to the Mariners. Sheer folly. But the M's as an organization are completely inconsistent about how they handle young players.

As minor leaguers, they are rushed up the ladder to the point of foolishness. Bavasi has said, on a number of occaisions, that they want to challenge their prospects, get them to face adversity at an early level and learn from it.

Yet when young players come up, they are not given the chance to learn from adversity at the big league level. They are generally given about a week to prove themselves, and if they do not kick ass in that week they are sent back down. And then usually traded for veteran dreck.

Just another way our front office totally doesn't get it. And its frustrating.

Speed

2008-05-05T23:47:00.000-07:00

What do you do to tweak a team that has poor-to-middling power (.425 slugging percentage in 2007, .383 so far in 2008), sub-par fielding (.979, 13th in the A.L.), mediocre pitching (4.21 ERA) and few prospects for immediate improvement in any of these areas - all leading to a disappointing 14-19 record out of the gate?

Speed.

Let's look at some facts.

In 2007, the top half of the American League in steals had a cumulative +38 win/loss record. Amongst those teams were three of the four playoff participants. So far in 2008, the top seven A.L. teams are a combined +11.

It may seem obvious even without the math, but there is a provable correlation between putting the game in motion and results on the diamond.

Speed is maybe the easiest "commodity" to acquire in baseball. Willie F'in Bloomquist has it, for God's sake. As of this writing, 17 American League players are on pace for 25 steals or more, including just one Mariner (Ichiro!). If you aren't a team that has it, then you'd better be a slugging club like last year's Cleveland Indians. The Mariners aren't even remotely close to that sort of team.

Ichiro should swipe 40+ bags. The M's next best base stealer is their freakin' cleanup hitter.

Do the M's have the ideal personnel to successfully put the game in motion? No, probably not. However, for all of John McLaren's preseason posturing about Ichiro stealing 80 bases, they've only tried 33 times in the first 33 games. That's not all that bad (only four A.L. teams exceeded 1.0 attempts/game last year), but they need to be one of those upper-end clubs in successful steals to compensate for their slugging deficiencies. As of this writing, the Mariners were 7th in steals in the A.L.

Get this team in motion, McLaren. You're 14-19 and on the verge of being out of the race already. The Mariners aren't going to morph into a good defensive club, or a power hitting team, and your bullpen has gone from shutdown to meltdown. What do you have to lose?

Back to the Future

2008-05-01T00:24:00.000-07:00

Flipping aimlessly through the channels, I saw that Back to the Future, Part II was being replayed for the one millionth time on HBO tonight. Seemingly for the first time in the Bavasi era, a version of that theme is being played in Mariner-land as we speak.

The Mariners have finally taken a step toward a significant youth infusion on the big club level. Seemingly every previous effort to squeeze the final vestiges of talent from aging, barely ever has-beens (as the Goose/Slider exchange from Top Gun goes: "The list is long, but distinguished - yeah, well so's my Johnson": Scott Spezio, Rich Aurilia, Carl Everett, Matt Lawton, Jeff Weaver, to name a few) has roundly failed. The worst part about it was that the team refused to recognize the inevitability of the failures until far too late to salvage anything. At least the latest dumpster dives - Wilkerson and Norton, to be specific - were cut loose early.

This small dust up covers two issues I addressed in recent posts: age and suckitude. I labeled both Wilkerson and Norton as "crap" in my last post and had a discussion as to how old the Mariners were for a rebuilding team in my A Rented Mule piece. Therefore, I feel especially pleased that both issues were addressed quickly by the previously slow-witted Mariners front office.

I don't care if Balentien and/or Clement may take time to produce at this level. They are replacing or augmenting positions that aren't producing as it is in right field and at DH. Moreover, it's exciting to see top young players break in and kick start their careers. Watching a team of mostly mediocre 30+ veterans go through the motions just isn't that enthralling. Plus, one can only hope that the youth movement might serve as a Vitamin B-12 injection to the veterans, not to mention the team's chances as this season unfolds.

I'm going to the May 9th game against the White Sox. Row 10, directly behind home plate, pretty close to the best seats in the house. All of a sudden there's a new sense of energy around watching this team play. Let's hope it translates into results on the field.

Welcome Wlad the Destroyer

2008-04-30T19:47:00.001-07:00

Bam!

Winnin' yoo-glee

2008-04-27T11:04:00.000-07:00

I went to my first M's game last night, and although I sat in the third deck overlooking left field, enjoyed watching Bedard pitch. He wasn't overpowering (the gun showed his fastball to be in the 89-92 range), but he seemed to keep the A's hitters off-balance all night long. His line was good: 6 2/3 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs, 4 K's, 4 BB's, albeit against a lineup that features a hell of a lot of Triple A hitters. It was the perfect opponent to tune up against.

The lineup was painful to witness, even if the results were what we wanted. After the average-to-above-average top four of Ichiro, Lopez, Ibanez and Beltre, McLaren trotted out the following: Norton, Sexson, Wilkerson, Burke, Betancourt. Crap, crap, crap, crap and decent. Three games behind first notwithstanding, the M's are not going to be able to keep up with the lack of overall talent they have offensively. There are just too many holes in the lineup, even when regulars Johjima (.194) and Vidro (.195) are in it. Maybe especially when they are in it, at least at this point. If Greg Norton is batting fifth in your lineup (even though he did go 3-for-4 with 3 RBI's last night), you know you have issues.

And then there's the bullpen. I admit that I still believe this is an area of strength for this ball club. Corcoran, Green and Morrow have been pretty solid, with opponents hitting .211, .213 and .083 against them, respectively. Green's 10 BB's in 12 2/3 IP are a large blemish, though, portending bigger problems for him. Speaking of problems, JJ Putz was just awful last night. I know he is rusty, but it was painful to watch him walk three and give up two hits in his one inning of work, turning a 5-1 game into a nail-biter. I was annoyed that Morrow wasn't left in the game - partly because he only threw 11 pitches in the 8th, mostly because he was in line for a cheap save for my fantasy team - and my annoyance grew as Putz struggled. Had the M's faced a team with a real lineup, this could have been a devastating loss.

I was grateful to see the Mariners hold on for the win and Bedard was a treat to watch, but with the offense Seattle has and the over-compartmentalization McLaren performs as manager, it's going to take divine intervention for this team to stay in the race all season long. Or a real GM.

Snow!

2008-04-19T08:45:00.000-07:00

In April. What the hell?

I am a huge fan of DirecTV. Way better than cable. Unless it snows.

Then you miss a tremendously exciting early season game with first place on the line.

Grrrrr!

Felix is fun!

2008-04-17T06:12:00.000-07:00

There was nothing that was not fun about last night's performance from Felix. The way he pitches, his enthusiasm, his interaction with his teammates. Just awesome.

And that wasn't even on of his best performances! He had 7 flyballs and only 8 K's. Super Felix is a ground ball/strikeout machine.

Fun!

Things we've learned after two weeks

2008-04-14T09:16:00.000-07:00

1. Eric O'Flaherty has some issues right now. Normally, I'm in the he'll be fine, keep rolling him out there camp, but he is really struggling. Expect him to get sent down today.

2. Mike Morse cannot play the outfield. He's really, really bad. When you end up injuring yourself trying to make a reasonably simple dive, well, you may not be in the right position.

3. The total lack of depth and bench hurts this team badly. If you want to give anyone in the outfield a day off, with Jimerson inexplicably cut, our only options are Morse, Norton, and Bloomquist, all converted infielders. Beltre is hurting, so we have to start Cairo? That was a really pathetic lineup we ran out there yesterday.

Okay, okay we knew most of those things before the season even started, but the first two weeks have really crystalized those points. Despite everything though, we are what we thought we were, an around 500 ballclub hoping for some breaks.

45 or 6-2-4

2008-04-12T15:05:00.000-07:00

I've discussed this before, but in the absolute sense, is strong pitching enough to overcome weak hitting on a baseball team?

Through the first 11 games of the year, prized #1 starter Eric Bedard has performed fairly well in his first two starts: 1-0, 3.27, 10 K's in 11 IP. His control has been off (8 BB's), though he's never been known as that type of pitcher anyway. If career stats are any indicator, he should end up averaging about half that many walks over the full season. Led by Bedard and King Felix, the Mariners' pitching staff is currently 7th in the AL in ERA (3.99), 5th in K's, third-highest in BB's, and tied for second-worst in HR's allowed. I don't believe these cumulative numbers satisfy the "strong" premise of the thread as of yet, but it's early.

Brad Wilkerson, Kenji Johjima and Jose Lopez represent a cross-section of an offense that is hitting an anemic .237 so far - last in the American League. Wilkerson is at .148/.185/.324, Johjima .100/.133/.206 and the red-hot Lopez .308/.341/.513. Other key team metrics include being tied for third in HR's (13), 7th in runs (48), 8th in slugging, 8th in SB's and T-1 in BB's. Other than BA, the rest of the numbers wallow in general mediocrity.

So what is the lesson learned? Nothing - it's too early to tell. The bullpen has skewed some of the pitching stats the wrong way, whereas certain cold bats have done the same offensively. However, amidst the jumble appear to be certain stats that may be bellwethers for later in the season: team speed, batting average, slugging percentage. Nobody who follows this team would be particularly surprised to see them continue to struggle in these areas. What will be very interesting to see is if baseball, circa 2008, can work as it did in the 1960's, when pitching could lead a team to the promised land. As the steroid era slams shut and the home run diminishes in importance, it's gone from a de minimis possibility to unknown territory. The Mariners had better hope so, as they've banked their season on it - not to mention a big chunk of their future.

That is, unless they juice the balls once again. Chicks dig the long ball.

Towel, part deux

2008-04-08T07:36:00.000-07:00

2-5.

If you go 2-5 at some point in May it is no big deal. 2-5 to open the season just feels worse somehow. I also contend strongly that late inning losses are bad for a team's morale. Although I tend to discount chemistry type arguments, I do think that a series of bullpen blows can lead to the rest of the team trying to "do to much" to win games on every swing, every pitch.

Still, there is every likelihood that the 2008 Seattle Mariners have plenty of near .500 baseball left in them this season. If simply left to their own devices they should eventually start playing their way back to the mean.

The real danger is if this poor start becomes a really poor start. How does management react to that? Does a couple of bad games get O'Flaherty sent to Tacoma? Does the team trade Clement for a veteran reliever? If they go 9-20 in April does the McLaren death watch start up? What about Bavasi? Does he get to hang around and blow a couple more farm chips in a quixotic quest for contention?

We could sweep the Rays this week and everything could die back down. But if we get swept, keep your eye on things. They could get interesting in a hurry.

Too early to start looking for the towel?

2008-04-06T18:31:00.001-07:00

So, we're at the end of week one. Putz is hurt, Big Sexy still can't hit, and we've swung from last to first in the division in a matter of a couple of games.

Sure, sure. It's too early to panic. (Well--not really. After all, this is just what we expected, right?) "Last place" is a mere 1.5 games behind the Angels, and I'm strangely comfortable with that.

I'm going to continue to attempt to keep the Pollyanna glasses on, but I'm just so beaten down as a Mariners fan by the current regime. The bizarre expectations of national talking heads (you know the ones...those who apparently agree with the front office that the team was an Erik Bedard away from playoff contention) just set up unrealistic targets for fans to attach themselves to.

I guess I should be happy that the team has been IN most of their contests. Up next: close battles against the O's (again), the new and improved Rays (the Devil has apparently been exorcised in Tampa Bay), and then next weekend we host the Angels. This could get ugly before we even escape April.

Sorry. Sorry. Not panicking yet. Go M's! Yeah! Woo hoo!

A rented mule

2008-04-02T23:02:00.000-07:00

Ever heard the taunt I'm going to beat you like a rented mule?

Wikipedia attributes that bit of slang lexicon to Mickey Redmond, a former NHL player and current Detroit Red Wings color commentator. It's my current pet phrase. I'm a fair ping pong player, and prior to most of my recent string of victories over a friend of mine, I've frequently loudly employed it - much to his amusement (and chagrin).

Thus, instead of beating a dead horse, I'm going to bastardize the theme slightly, especially since the M's have continued their recent dominance over the hapless Texas Rangers, indeed beating them like a rented mule.

Let's look at the ages of the Mariners' opening day lineup and starting staff:

Ichiro! - 34
Lopez - 24
Ibanez - 35
Sexon - 33
Beltre - 28
Wilkerson - 30
Vidro - 33
Johjima - 31
Betancourt - 26

Bedard - 29
Felix - 21
Silva - 28
Washburn - 33
Batista - 37

That is one old team.

Compare it to the positional counterparts of the Cleveland Indians, who (unlike the Mariners) pulled the plug completely and did a full rebuild - returning to prominence sooner than Seattle, for that matter:

Sizemore - 25
Cabrera - 22
Peralta - 25
Martinez - 29
Hafner - 30
Garko - 27
Gutierrez - 25
Dellucci - 34
Blake - 34

Sabathia - 27
Carmona - 24
Westbrook - 30
Byrd - 37
Lee - 29

I haven't bothered to include the bench and relief pitchers, but based solely upon these lists, which team appears built for the long haul?

Having beaten the horse, mule or whatever equine creature suits your fancy sufficiently, spring is the time for optimism, not criticism. The Mariner starters are humming along in the first three games, the hitters seem willing to work the count instead of lunging at everything, and the bullpen is solid - the loss of J.J. Putz notwithstanding.

161-1, baby.

Ahhhh, 161-1, anybody?

2008-04-02T19:55:00.000-07:00

And the optimism is tempered a bit. M's blow a won game on Felix's watch. Yikes.

And to make matters worse, J.J. Putz is felled by an injury I can't even pronounce.

We're seeing exciting baseball, to be sure, but I'm not very reassured that its exciting baseball involving a really, really bad team. (The Rangers...sorry I failed to clarify.) What happens when we play good teams?

What happens when Bedard and Felix aren't starting?

Well, for now (as of right now, the Jackal is inexplicably cruising against said bad team in the Safe), we can hope to continue enjoying exciting, and possibly even winning, baseball. The bullpen is certainly weakened by the injury, but there aren't a lot of less critical positions to lose than closer. I hope that Putz's injury is less awful than it sounds, but I refuse to give in to despair.

Yet.

162-0 still in sight....

2008-03-31T20:01:00.000-07:00

There's nothing like winning the opener in an exciting game. I'm going to ignore all the warning signs here, and just cheer on the M's.

One down, 161 to go.

Opening Day, woot!

2008-03-30T17:03:00.001-07:00

Well, if we ignore that two-game set in Japan last week anyway.

The M's retain all 162 opportunities to win games at this point. No yelling at Mac for stupid manager tricks. No bemoaning the sorcerers of roster construction (we'd just be adding to the din anyway). Not even any of my bad-natured critiques of Wee Willie Bloomquist.

Just freshly-mown grass, a baseball, some leather, and...perfection!

Enjoy your Opening Day, one and all!

Spring Training Battles - Update

2008-03-24T21:16:00.000-07:00

As ST winds down, here's where the battles we outlined in our What's at Stake series stand.

Bench
Backup catcher: Clement and Johnson are back in Tacoma, and Burke wins the job as predicted.

Backup OF: Jimerson, Reed and Morse are all still alive. Morse has hit the snot out of the ball (.519 BA, 788 SLG) while Jimerson has not and Reed has shown no power. Morse is still pretty brutal in the OF by most accounts. Balentien was sent to Tacoma. Either Morse gets the job or they find someone on the waiver wire at the end of the spring.

Last guy: Cairo and Norton have hit decently this spring. Cairo's getting guaranteed money, so I still think the job goes to him. This is an absolute waste of a roster spot.

What they should do: Burke, Reed, Morse, Willie.
What they will do: Burke, Waiver bait, Cairo, Willie.

Bullpen
Huber, White, Jimenez and Rohrbaugh all got sent down. HoRam was released (yay!).

O'Flaherty gets the LH setup job, so he, Putz and Morrow are all in and Dickey looks to be a lock for the long man.

That leaves 3 spots for Rhodes, Reitsma, Lowe, Green, Rowland-Smith and Baek. Pretty good chance that Rhodes and Reitsma both start the year on the DL, leaving those last 3 jobs to Lowe, Green and RRS. Baek is the odd man out despite having a good spring.

What they should do: Putz, O'Flaherty, Morrow, Lowe, Green, Dickey and Baek. Rhodes and Reitsma Released, RRS to Tacoma as a starter.

What they will do: Putz, O'Flaherty, Morrow, Lowe, Rhodes, Green and Dickey. Reitsma on the DL, Baek waived, RRS to Tacoma unless they DL Rhodes as well.

What's at Stake: The Bench

2008-03-06T06:15:00.000-08:00

The bench might be the most interesting of the pieces this Spring. Lots of guys fighting for just a few spots.

Assuming a 12 man staff and a 9 man lineup, that leaves just 4 bench spots open. And we know Willie is getting one of those. That leaves room for a backup catcher, a backup outfielder and one more guy. On to the candidates!

Backup Catcher
Jamie Burke - Burke hit 300 with little power or patience last year and handled himself reasonably well behind the dish. He's got the inside track on the job, but he's just keeping it warm for one of the two guys behind him. He won't repeat last year's performance.
Jeff Clement - Clement can hit (Pecota thinks he can put an ISO in the 150 range), and his defense is probably at least acceptable, but he's not ready for prime-time just yet. He'll likely start the year in Tacoma.
Rob Johnson - He's got the defensive reputation of our Tacoma catchers. He isn't going to hit in the big leagues though. If Burke had a terrible spring or got hurt, or hit 150 in April and May, Johnson might get the first look as a defensive replacement type backup.

Backup Outfielder
Jeremy Reed - After a very slow start, showed again last year that he can handle AAA pitching. I like Reed's chances here, he can handle the bat well enough and he can play all 3 OF spots. He makes a good 4th OF except for one small problem. He's left-handed, just like all the other M's outfielders. So he can't platoon with Wilkerson or Ibanez if you decide to go that route. He's also got an option remaining so he can be sent to AAA and kept as CF insurance
Charlton Jimerson - Toolsy OF picked up from Houston, he's big, strong and fast. And he can't hit. He's not even as good a minor league hitter as Reed, but he has more power and can steal a base or two. Plus he is right handed, so he makes a better caddy for Wilkerson/Ibanez in that respect.
Mike Morse - Has worked on his OF play to the point where he is respectable by most accounts. Has hit in 300 ABs in the majors, but probably isn't going to maintain that. Things in his favor are that he can play all the infield positions as well and he's out of options.
Wladimir Balentien - Made progress in AAA last year, cutting down on his strikeouts considerably. He could use some more time there to work on the holes in his swing, though. Might be ready by the All-Star break to be the right-handed half of a platoon. Would need an amazing spring to make the club out of the gate.

Last guy
There are a number of ways the M's could go with this spot. If Morse isn't the backup OF, you don't really have another 1b or 3b on the roster, so you would need one of those. Thus, Morse has a shot at this spot if Reed or Jimerson win the OF job. They could also keep Clement and have him backup Richie at first, steal some ABs from Vidro and catch once a week. They are in win-now mode after all. But the job is likely to go to one of these two guys:
Miguel Cairo - In theory he can play all the IF positions and provides a fallback if Lopez plays poorly. In reality, he sucks and would be a waste of a roster spot. Naturally, he's got the inside track.
Greg Norton - Can play both IF corners and the OF. Has the professional hitter label. Is comfortable in a bench/pinch hitter role for what that's worth. Would have to be added to the 40-man roster if he made it.

So that's it, three bench positions up for grabs is basically the most interesting thing in camp. And there's like a 90% chance the bench is Willie, Burke, Cairo and either Jimerson or Reed. Whoo!

What's at Stake? The Lineup

2008-03-01T05:49:00.000-08:00

Absolutely fucking nothing. This is the lineup:

1B - Sexson
2b - Lopez
SS - Betancourt
3b - Beltre
C - Johjima
LF - Ibanez
CF - Ichiro
RF - Wilkerson
DH - Vidro

Does that look like the lineup of a pennant winner to you?

I suppose that if Lopez struggles they could start Bloomquist, but instead of signing a real second baseman to challenge him, they gave guaranteed money to Miguel Cairo. I suppose Balentien could hit the crap out of the ball and force his way into the starting lineup, but it will be at the expense of Wilkerson I'm sure and not Vidro.

This lineup just screams for a real first baseman and a real left fielder (pushing Raul to DH and Vidro to the bench) but the M's don't even have fallbacks for those two positions. Bavasi is rolling the dice on Sexson and Ibanez/Vidro. Hope he enjoys his retirement...

What's at Stake? The Bullpen

2008-02-24T20:31:00.000-08:00

As spring training gets under way, We'll run down the position battles (such as they are) that make camp interesting. Last time we took a look at the rotation, today, the pen!

We'll assume a 7 man pen, and that we have to have two lefties, because the M's are obsessed with these types of things. Putz is the closer and Morrow is the right handed setup man. The left-handed setup guy comes down to Eric O'Flaherty or our old friend Arthur Rhodes. Based on health and recent effectiveness I'm guessing it goes to O'Flaherty. Mark Lowe has probably got a spot if he's healthy, so that leaves 3 spots. I've ranked the remaining competitors in order of likeliness of making the squad, and remember we've got to have one more lefty.

1. Sean Green. Pitched well for much of last year, with a 3.84 ERA in 68 innings, but was part of the late season bullpen struggles. Still he pitched well enough that he is likely to keep his spot unless he has a really bad camp.
2. Ryan Rowland-Smith. Also had solid half-season in the M's pen. 42 strikeouts in only 38 innings and 3.96 ERA probably gets him in the pen. Fills the second lefty role.
3. Horacio Ramirez. Since they traded for him and signed him to good sized deal in th offseason, I'm guessing he makes the club as long man. Bleah.
4. R.A. Dickey. Could get HoRam's job if he has a good camp. Remember, he has to be kept on the 25 man roster or be offered back to the Twins. So if the M's want to keep him as the 6th starter, they have to find room for him in the pen.
5. Arthur Rhodes. Arthur Lee has a shot at the LH setup role, but if he doesn't get it, they might not keep him around. Could be the second lefty if RR-S struggles in camp.
6. Chris Reitsma. He was terrible with the M's last year and he's likely done. But you know the M's. If he has a superficially decent camp and they decide they need his essential veteran-ness...
7. Jon Huber. Had 16 decent innings in 2006 at the end of the year, but lost a big chunk of last season to a forearm strain. Has been passed by Sean Green and probably needs someone to get hurt to have big league job.
8. Robert Rohrbaugh. Mentioned him in the starters post. He's a finesse lefty, with an outside shot at the pen. He's not getting any younger.
9. Cesar Jimenez. Comes in to camp having pitched great in Venezuela. Probably starts the year in Tacoma's rotation.
8. Sean White. Last year's Rule Five pick should start the year in the minors. But if a lot of bad things happen to a lot of guys he could make the club.

My oh my!

2008-02-19T12:55:00.000-08:00

The P-I is reporting, via the AP, that original Mariner Dave Niehaus is this year's winner of the Frick Award. The winner of this award gets inducted into the broadcast wing of the Baseball Hall of Fame!

Way to go Dave! We here at Tatonka make no secret of our Non-Sexual Man Crush (tm Batgirl) on the legendary voice of the Mariners. My Niehaus autographed cap is one of my prized possessions. During the miracle that was the 1995 season, a quick rub of his signature was a can't miss good luck charm. And, yes I did rub the autograph just before The Double.

Again, congrats to Dave on a well deserved honor. Somebody break out the rye bread...

What's at Stake? The Rotation

2008-02-17T10:40:00.000-08:00

As pitchers and catchers reported this week, (Yay!) I thought we would hit the 4 main areas of the M's roster and review what jobs are up for grabs in Spring Training. Who could make the club, who could get the boot and what it would mean for the M's season coming up.

We'll start off with the rotation. What's at Stake? Since the Bedard trade, not bloody much! Here's how the rotation shakes out:

SP1 Erik Bedard
SP2 Felix Hernandez
SP3 Carlos Silva
SP4 Jarrod Washburn
SP5 Miguel Batista

Silva, Wash and Batista could actually start in any order there, I listed Batista as the 5 only because if the pen should struggle or we lose JJ for any length of time they could move him to the pen and start someone else. I expect he is on the shortest leash of any of the Craptastic Three should they struggle. Although given what we have seen of McLaren so far, we know that the leash is pretty damn long for all of them. This is the guy who gave HoRam 20 starts with an ERA over 7!

These are the guys in the running to be the first guy up from Tacoma. Spring Training is important for these guys, because the Mariners in the past have let the manager make the call on callups and fill-ins, so pesky things like AAA stats are not going to be a huge factor in the decision, at least not compared to whether or not they "showed us something," in the spring.

40 Man Roster candidates
Horacio Ramirez - Probably will be in big league pen as a mop-up guy. Sucks.
Cha Seung Baek - 12 starts last year and wasn't terrible. Pretty much the definition of a replacement level pitcher. He's got the best BP PECOTA projection of anybody fighting for a job here.
Ryan Feierabend - Baek with a cooler name. Actually Ryan is 22 and throws harder, so there is more upside here, but his 9 starts were not as good as Baek's.
Ryan Rowland-Smith - Lefty who spent some time in the big league pen last year and has a shot a job there this year. Worked as a starter in Venezuela this winter, with limited success. Baseball America has him as our 9th best prospect.
R.A. Dickey - Rule 5 selection this offseason, if he doesn't make the big-league club, he must be offered back to the Twins. Had an ERA under 4 in AAA Nashville last year as a knuckleballer.

NRIs with an outside shot:
Jake Woods - He's still here?
Robert Rohrbaugh- Finesse college lefty with good control.

Up next: The Bullpen!

Now it Really is Done

2008-02-09T12:10:00.000-08:00

The world's longest trade is finally done. Officially it is Bedard for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio.

In general I am not as down on this trade as some in the blogosphere. I am disappointed that we are losing Adam Jones. The price also seems a little high, especially compared to the price the Mets paid for Santana.

If we were closer to a championship I would like the trade better. At this point in our success cycle, we should be holding on to prospects not dealing them away. We should be building our next good team around Adam Jones instead of trading him for two years of a great, but at least mildly injury prone pitcher.

But it does make us better than we were before in the short term. It puts us in position to make a run at the Angels should the season go horribly wrong for them. The wild card seems unlikely given that we'd have to beat both the loser of the Yankees/Red Sox and Indians/Tigers.

Still I can't totally blame Bavasi for going for it. I can see why, in the position he's in it makes sense. And since some early rumors had Clement and Morrow in the deal too, I guess I'm grateful that didn't happen.

The puzzling thing for me, is how little Bavasi did to fix the rest of the problems on the team, given the clear win-at-any-cost stance he has taken. He has made a huge gamble here that by trading away a major league ready stud in waiting like Jones for a truly top flight pitcher is going to make the Mariner's relevant this season.

But even if that deal works out short-term, he could be completely sunk by the fact that he failed to find an even league average first baseman to replace the corpse formerly known as Richie Sexson. He could lose it all because his DH can't replicate the 15 infield singles he got last year and puts up an OPS of 725. He could end up being fired because Raul Ibanez ages as quickly this off-season as he did last or because Brad Wilkerson can't come close to replacing Jose Guillen's production or Jose Lopez regresses even further.

In typical Bavasi fashion he decided that starting pitching was the problem and pursued that to the exclusion of all the myriad other problems on the team. Erik Bedard won 13 games for a pretty bad Orioles team. Bavasi seems convinced he can win 20 for an M's team that might not be a whole lot better.

Sources report: it's done

2008-01-27T23:19:00.000-08:00

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080127&content_id=2357273&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

Adam Jones leaving winter ball in Venezuela, reportedly to take his physical, and is quoted in the referenced MLB.com article that Bavasi informed him of the trade.

Media reports leaking out about a deal, including on MLB.com and in The Seattle Times.

The trade has been completed. Adam Jones, the M's prized rookie right fielder, is heading to Baltimore as the centerpiece of a deal between the Mariners and Orioles which likely also includes reliever George Sherrill and prospect Chris Tillman, with perhaps one more minor leaguer as part of the exchange.

Let me say this, right off the bat: the Mariners may now have the best pitching staff, top to bottom, in the American League. Bedard, King Felix, Silva, Batista and Chris Washburn makes for one hell of a starting five. Buh-bye, Jeff Weaver and take a seat, Horacio Ramirez. Meanwhile, the bullpen (although weakened) includes Putz, Morrow, Green, O'Flaherty, Rowland-Smith, White, and baseball's most expensive long reliever, Ho-Ram. In combination, it appears to exceed the staffs of the Angels, Indians, Red Sox, and every other contender in the American League. At the very least, it's right up there with them.

That's the good news.

The bad news is this: the Mariners' oddly-constructed, ill-fitted, station-to-station offense appears to have become even weaker with the defection of steroid boy Guillen, the loss of minor league stud Jones and the trade of Ben Broussard. Sure, Jones was completely unproven at this level. Without question, Guillen was a cheater dogged with character issues. Certainly, Broussard was part of the DH/1B logjam that characterized the Mariners, circa 2007. Regardless, Seattle's middle-of-the-pack offense (7th in the A.L. in runs scored in 2007) has taken several steps backwards this winter. Whatever scrub or relic they dust off to play right field this year cannot replace what's been lost.

We hear one constant uttered in low, rumbling tones in almost every sport, so often that we almost intrinsically believe it must be true: defense wins ballgames. It's said about football, basketball - heck, even hockey - and definitely about baseball. But is it true?

Based upon empirical evidence, I think the best response is an unqualified not necessarily.

Toronto had the A.L.'s 2nd lowest ERA and 8th best fielding percentage in 2007, yet finished a distant 3rd in their division and won just 83 games. Minnesota had the league's 4th lowest ERA and 9th best fielding percentage but finished under .500. Meanwhile, the Yankees had a team ERA worse than both of them and a fielding percentage lower than the Mariners and won 94 games. Scoring 968 runs did the trick. Toronto's 753 runs scored doomed them to mediocrity, as did Minnesota's 718.

The M's are going to have to score runs this year if they hope to have any realistic chance to overtake the Angels. Period. Ichiro, Beltre and Ibanez are good starts and should outperform the averages at their respective positions once again this year. Betancourt doesn't add a ton of offense, but he's also a plus offensive player, as it Johjima. Lopez appears to be a slight minus. It's the black holes at 1B, RF and DH that are going to kill this club if Sexon cannot bounce back in a big way, a suitable replacement isn't found for Guillen-turned-into-Jones and the world's most expensive singles hitter without speed remains, well, similarly limited. Having 1/3 of your projected day-to-day offensive players qualifying as huge minuses just doesn't portend well for an offense that isn't particularly impressive anyway.

I'll reserve judgment on this deal until after the team solves the gaping hole in RF. I fear that 100-year old Luis Gonzalez is heading this way. Yippee!

Do good GMs grow on trees?

2008-01-19T00:11:00.001-08:00

Alas, apparently they do not. However, some do spawn in the muck, and we've got one in Bill Bavasi.

There are some good ones out there: Billy Beane, Omar Minaya, Brian Cashman, Terry Ryan, Dave Dombrowski, Theo Epstein, Walt Jocketty, Kevin Towers, to name a few. Those lucky teams have seen recent, sustained success, several (Oakland, Minnesota, San Diego) with bottom-half payrolls. Contrast that to our beloved M's, who have what most ranking lists show to be one of the very worst GMs in all of baseball.

Terrible trades and free agent signings aside, the part of this rebuilding effort that has disturbed me the most is the unwillingness to do a complete tear-down. The M's have vainly tried to compete over the last four years, coming modestly close in 2007 and thus providing what I believe will prove to be utterly false hope to Seattle fans. Contrast this with the full rebuild that Cleveland did, and where the two franchises stand today. Cleveland is a true division favorite, whereas Seattle seems poised for a cratering this season and is, at best, a distant also-ran to the Angels. Cleveland has four more players under 30 on their 40-man roster and what appears to be a hell of a lot more logically constructed team. Oh yeah - they spent about $45 million less on payroll in 2007.

I miss Pat Gillick. Heck, Bavasi is making me yearn for (gulp) Woody Woodward again.

Ho!

2008-01-18T15:38:00.001-08:00

...Ram!!!!!

Wowza. Hey, did I miss something? Are the M's going to play in Triple-A this season? Did we REALLY just give a guy who is NEARLY a major-league pitcher a RAISE?!?!?!?!?

Thanks, Bavasi!! You r0xx0rz!!1!1!1!

PS - I'd pitch for half of that, with equally stinky results. Just sayin.

And the beat goes on....

2008-01-09T02:26:00.001-08:00

We've been dark here at Tatonka more often than not for the last few months. I think it's safe to say that Mariners' ownership, Bill Bavasi, John McLaren, and a cast of thousands have finally succeeded at something: driving we long-time fans to genuine despair.

Yesterday, while they thought we weren't paying attention, the M's signed Miguel Cairo. Um, 33 years old, can't really play solid defense anywhere? Check. Has never demonstrated the ability to hit, either? Check. 3/4 of a million bucks down the toilet for a player we don't really need? Check. A roster spot wasted? Check. (No, I'm not describing Willie Bloomquist.)

I suppose that it's good to know that there are some constants in the universe. It kind of sucks that the Mariners being led by fools is one of them, but hey: whaddya do?

Now, to be fair, signing Miguel Cairo is an insignificant blip on the radar screen of head-scratching personnel moves carried out by the current regime. We could cut him tomorrow, and all we'd be out is cash (and, at this point, I don't trust the M's to spend their resources wisely, so...meh).

It's just the umpteenth data point to indicate that the plan, such as it is, in Seattle is to have a crappy, veteran-laden, "grit and character" team.

Sigh.

Carlos Silva

2007-12-20T13:15:00.000-08:00

Its official. The M's first big move of the year (unless someone wants to count RA Dickey!) is to sign Carlos Silva to a 4 yr, 44 million dollar contract.

On the one hand, I think the Jackal is a helluva lot better pitcher than Jarrod Washburn, who got a similar contract 2 years ago. He has tremendous control, so he never walks anybody and he throws a lot of groundballs so a good infield defense can help him tremendously.

On the other hand, the M's don't have a great infield defense. Beltre is awesome, Yuni seems to look better than some of the more advanced metrics think he is, Lopez is poor and by Ultimate Zone Rating Sexson is the worst first baseman in all of baseball. Control pitchers do seem to degrade faster than power pitchers, though nothing in his performance record seems to indicate that Silva is about to turn into a pumpkin. And of course if the Washburn contract is the bar, then that is going to make a lot of contracts look pretty good.

I don't exactly hate the Silva signing. Its too much money for too many years, but I think he can be a useful pitcher over the life of the contract.

The whole problem is that this team is going nowhere. Carlos Silva isn't the answer. He's not going to push us any closer to a championship. Hell, Erik Bedard or even Johan Santana don't push us any closer to a championship. Okay they push us closer, but not all the way there. The whole problem is last year's brief foray into respectability and the retention of Bavasi on a win or else basis means that we're wasting money on Carlos Silva and threatening to give up the heart of the next truly good Mariner team (Jones, Clement, Morrow) for one guy. And one guy isn't going to get it done.

If I were in the Angels' position or Cleveland's I would love to trade my best minor leaguers for a true ace like Bedard or Santana. If I had a great offense and no 5th starter I would be willing to overpay for Carlos Silva.

But the M's should be taking flyers on guys and giving real shots to Baek, Feierabend and Rohrbaugh. That's where we are in the success cycle and its time we admitted it.

Mariner mystery solved!

2007-11-04T05:58:00.000-08:00

Alrighty, baseball fans. The Hot Stove is already heating up in other cities, what with the availability of real talent at manager (Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa, Joe Girardi...whoops, they're already gone), and in the infield (Pay-Rod) and outfield (Aaron Rowand, Andruw Jones, Toriiiii Hunter).

We need pitching, as it turns out. Damn, couldn't have seen that one coming (what? we did?? Or here? Oh, well, carp!)

The venerable USS Mariner has already endorsed Bartolo Colon as a $10M reclamation project, practically guaranteeing that Bavasi WON'T go after the tub of goo. There are some other marginally interesting names on the FA pitchers list (Curt Schilling? Randy Wolf? Carlos Silva? Odalis Perez?--no thanks, all). But in general, we're hosed, yet again, if we're hoping to have a decent 2008 season.

Wait! Has Bill Bavasi ever been seen in the same cartoon frame as Charlie Brown? I mean, he's probably not ACTIVELY trying to sabotage the team, right? He's just really really bad at his job? Yeah?

That would explain quite a number of things in Mr. Bavasi's career--after all, many of the truly important decisions for major league franchises are made during football season, a time of year that generally completely baffles young Mr. Brown.

I'll leave it up to the reader to decide....

Of course! It was the coaches fault!

2007-10-07T09:35:00.000-07:00

Bavasi and McLaren are coming back, but the pesky coaching staff has to go.

Yes, the Mariners have fired most of their coaching staff, keeping only hitting coach Jeff Pentland.

Usual platitudes in the story about what good guys they all are and McLaren needed his own coaching staff, yadda, yadda, yadda.

But they kept Pentland and fired pitching coach Rafael Chaves. Why? Easy! Because they were third in the league in batting average and 10th in ERA! Never mind the uselessness of those stats in evaluating players, let alone coaches. Look at what they had to work with?

I mean, who is Pentland supposed to have helped? Did he coach Vidro into all those singles? Ichiro, Ibanez, Guillen? Beltre? Do you think any of those guys benefited from the hitting coach? Then what about Lopez? And for god's sake, Sexson? To be clear, I'm sure Pentland is a fine hitting coach, but the Mariner's are a hacktastic group of high average, low power free swingers. When they hit for a high average, like this year, they are a mediocre offense (they were only 7th in the AL in runs scored, despite being 3rd in BA, some of that is Safeco of course), but if they only hit say .275 next year (remember average has the most fluctuation from year to year) they are going to be back near the bottom of the league in runs again.

And hom much did Chaves have to do with the ERA? Does he take the fall for Weaver and HoRam? Leo Freakin' Mazzone couldn't help those losers. Felix isn't yet Johan Santana. That's Chaves' fault? What about the bullpen? All the high priced veterans failed, but he managed to keep together a group of kids and castoffs until their arms fell off in September. Who gets credit for that? Bavasi? McLaren? Again, I have no idea if Chaves is a decent coach or not. But I suspect the Mariners are judging the coaches strictly on the ERA's and batting averages, and that's just another organizational failing the next GM is going to have to fix.

Not surprised, but still, bleah...

2007-09-29T11:53:00.000-07:00

So Bavasi and McLaren are back for another year. I'm not at all surprised, in fact, I expected them both to be back. Its very disappointing to me though.

Even though we spend a lot of time on the blog criticizing M's management, I really am not a knee-jerk, fire everybody kind of guy. I did push hard to dump Hargrove and am horrified that McLaren has turned out worse, but I generally think that most of the time teams change managers and coaches too fast, without giving them time to develop a long term strategy.

That all being said, what really bothers me about bringing Johnny Mac and Bavasi back is the lack of accountability. McLaren decided to roll Richie Sexson out there day after day despite having a handy alternative in Broussard. McLaren decided to keep pitching Ramirez every 5th day no matter what the results. He decided that Vidro's singles were better for the club than Broussard's power. He decided that Raul's adventures in left field were acceptable for a staff of flyball, pitch to contact guys. He decided that it was more important to keep his veterans happy then to see if Adam Jones could help them win ballgames. McLaren decided that Rick White, John Parrish and Chris Reitsma should be pitching in the 8th inning of close games.

These were all McLaren's decisions and the season ended in failure. And he should be held accountable for that. There weren't any significant injuries, any extenuating circumstances, the team just didn't get it done and some of the blame can be traced to the consitently poor decisions that McLaren made.

Of course you could argue that this team wasn't talented enough to compete for a playoff spot. The fault for that lies at feet of Bill Bavasi. As Walt points out, the non-Felix part of the rotation was a total disaster. Not only didn't starters 2-5 pitch well, they didn't even pitch deep into games, taxing a bullpen that clearly wore down at the end of the year. And no one who reads this blog should be surprised by any of this. I critcized the Washbrun signing two years ago, I spoke out against the Batista signing and hammered the Ramirez deal. The only signing I was remotely optimistic about was Weaver and that had more to do with it being a one-year deal that happened late in the signing period than anything else.

Despite having a payroll north of 100 million, despite having a beautiful ballpark and a sweet local tv deal, Bavasi has been unable to put this team in the playoffs. He consistently expects players to produce like their best seasons, ignoring completely things like peripheral statistics, ballpark effects and normal aging patterns. He gets some credit for rebuilding the farm system, but since both of the managers he has hired are unwilling to give playing time to the products of that farm system, he ends up trading them for pennies on the dollar.

I made this point in another post, but this will be Bavasi's tenth season as a big league GM and he hasn't made the playoffs one time. Not one time. And he won't next year either. One more year of silly free agent contracts and one more year of trading something for nothing is just going to set the next GM back even further when he tries to rebuild the club.

Bleah.

I really hate to say 'I told you so', but ...

2007-09-28T00:27:00.000-07:00

... the failure of the Mariners to adequately address the implosion of their 4-5 starting slots tanked any hope they had of competing for the wild card this year.

As you may recall, I advocated grooming Morrow for the back end of the rotation way back in July. Maybe it wouldn't have worked. Perhaps his lack of control would have derailed that effort. On the other hand, could it really have ended up any worse than what we experienced? Horacio Ramirez will probably end up (using standard metrics) as one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball this year, if not the worst. Let's face it, despite a few startlingly good outings, Jeff Weaver's 7-13, 6.30 ERA, taken as a whole, was one of this year's biggest smoking craters in all of baseball. Meanwhile, despite the control issues, Morrow posted a solid .243 OBA with 66 K's in 63 1/3 IP. Ramirez and Weaver's were .337 and .317, respectively.

I am, frankly, stunned that Bavasi's option has been picked up. What is this team's identity? We know it's none of the following: power (10th in the A.L. in HR's), speed (9th in SB's), ability to get on base (7th in OBP), general offense (7th in runs), holding the opposition down (12th in ERA), keeping runners off base (13th in hits allowed, 9th in BB's). Fielding, maybe? Well, they are 5th in the A.L. in fielding percentage and third in double plays turned, so maybe that. Maybe. Regardless, that's clearly not enough.

Station-to-station baseball, that's what the M's played this year. It's almost a miracle that they'll end up with 85-87 wins. Unfortunately, Tad's probably right. Short-sighted management will see an improvement "trend" and thus be unwilling to do anything significant. Meanwhile, the few dumpster dives Bavasi made this past year that actually worked (Guillen, Batista) will be unlikely to repeat their decent seasons and this jigsaw puzzle with no true solution will falter.

Bring on La Russa. I don't care that McLaren put in his time over the last 25 years. He had his chance to prove his mettle and showed himself to be overly dependent upon veterans, too situational with his bullpen, unwilling to manufacture runs and unable to make the major changes needed to shake the team out of their epic collapse. La Russa has his flaws and ends up wearing out his welcome eventually, but his half-life is about ten years. Outside of Pinella, that's the equivalent of about eight typical Mariner managerial tenures. Five World Series teams (two winners), four manager of the year awards and 12 overall playoff appearances dot his resume, and he's a west coast guy to boot.

Go get him.

While you're at it, cut Bavasi loose. La Russa will want Jocketty to come with him. Use the unexpected potential availability of the architects of 2006's World Series championship to reverse the ill-advised decision to keep him. If you have to pay him to leave, do so. Follow the Seahawks' model and get the proven winner when you have the chance. Heck, follow your own model, circa 1993.

I'm not optimistic, but I'm holding out hope that the Mariners make a bold statement this off-season. They've squandered more than their share of opportunities since 2001. Don't let this be another instance of that.

Elimination

2007-09-26T06:24:00.000-07:00

Its official, no playoffs for us this year. That's 6 straight years if you are counting, which I am.

4 years under Bavasi, no playoff appearances. He was in Anaheim for 5 years with no playoff appearances. Quite a little record of futility.

Maybe we can play some of the young guys now?

Balentien - 2 ABs, recalled sept 4th
Clement - 4 ABs, recalled Sept 4th
Charlton Jimerson - 2 ABs, recalled Sept 1st
Rob Johnson - 1 AB, Recalled Sept 1st

One at-bat for Johnson? Really? One?

Adam Jones has 23 at-bats in September. 23. That's what 5 games worth? For the whole month. Ridiculous.

The Bitter Flute of Disappointment

2007-09-25T13:47:00.000-07:00

F "Oh, Jimmy, we'll never get home."
J "Sure we will, Freddie! We've just got to think positive thoughts!"
F "It just feels like we're in a looping cycle of rerun upon rerun...it's like we're playing the same season over and over and over again."
J "C'mon, don't you LIKE living here on Living Island? Where else would a talking magic golden flute not be viewed as a freak?!"
F "Look out, Jimmy! It's Witchiepoo!!!"
J "Nah, that's just Bill Bavasi. Hey, Mr. Bavasi! What are YOU doing here?"
B "Why, what a nice young man. What's your name, son?"
J "Jimmy, sir."
B "Well, Jimmy Sir, I was hoping to find Mayor Pufnstuf. I heard he has a line on a living tree that can field like nobody's business. I understand defense is the way to go in my line of work, and that's why I've collected the best defenders money can buy."
J "You mean like Yuniesky Betancourt?"
B "Ho ho ho! You're very funny, Jimmy Sir. No, I'm talking about veterans with vast experience at playing the field, like Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro."
"But I'll tell you what. You're pretty polite, and you've got that eerie flute, so how about you play for my team instead?"
J "Will it get me out of reruns?"
F "Yeah!"
B "Ahhh, not exactly. But I HAVE led the way to 'improving' my team every year! [Aside: "Not sure how I'm gonna do that next season...."]
J "No thanks, mister. I'd rather run away from scary trees that can't move very fast than have to learn a whole new tragic routine. Besides, I inspired Sigmund and the Sea Monsters!"
B "Oh, yeah, classic stuff. Well, those trees sound pretty agile. I'm gonna keep looking for..."
Everyone sings: "H.R. Pufnstuf....Can't do a little 'cause he can't do enough."

The Bitter Fruit of Disappointment

2007-09-20T05:30:00.000-07:00

I haven't been able to bring myself to post anything in a while.

I didn't expect much out of this team, but then when it played well, I got excited, I started to believe. That made the historic collapse of the 2007 Mariners all the more disappointing.

After the Rick White debacle, I just kind of lost interest in this particular group of Mariners, and particularly, this management team.

Reitsma, Parrish, White. All thrown into the 8th and 9th innings of close games, because they were veterans. Because they had experience. Even though every stat you could throw out there said they couldn't get the job done. Even though every time you rolled them out there, they got shelled.

Batista, Washburn, Weaver, Ramirez. All starters signed or traded for in the hopes that they could reproduce their best seasons, or in some cases the best parts of otherwise dismal seasons. With very little in the way of backup should these guys fail, and very little stomach to use what backup you did have. Despite how poorly that rotation has pitched we have given starts to exactly two other pitchers. As an organization we are loyal way past the point of it being a fault.

I fully expect that Bavasi and McLaren will be back next year. Guillen, Vidro, Ibanez in left. Washburn and Batista will be here, probably Ramirez too. We'll sign one veteran starter for way too much money, maybe try and find a taker for Richie and roll 90% of these same guys out next year. Do you think we'll be any more successful? I don't. This isn't a playoff team, it wasn't really ever a playoff team this year and its not going to be a playoff team next year. On a 107 million dollar payroll.

So I'm back to posting. I can't speak for Walt and Jason, but I'll react to news as it comes up. I've got some season in review posts coming up, and then the obligatory, if we were the GM stuff. But expect the tone to be dark for a while. Very dark.

What my diffenbachia thinks about the M's

2007-08-31T13:40:00.000-07:00

Yeah! We're only one game out of the wildcard! In August! We should hoist Bill Bavasi and John McLaren on our leaves and march them around Seattle to honor their glorious achievement! Who would have thought that could be done with only 4 years and an enormous payroll? All Hail Bavasi!

Whoo hoo! Seattle isn't in last place!! Or even third!!! We're on target for a winning season! It doesn't get any better than this.

Now if we all keep thinking positive thoughts, pray to our beloved Mariners superstars (like Rick White) faithfully, and close our eyes REAL tight, I bet we'll even be able to WIN IT ALL!!!! Plus, we'll all get ponies for Christmas this year!! (Finally, some organic fertilizer!)

I'm so proud to be a fan of such a well-run, successful franchise. Who could be luckier than we few?

And shame on all those nasty bloggers and mean old fans with all their STATS and NEGATIVE VIBES when they dare to criticize our heroes! John McLaren is awesome! After all, if we just lost six in a row, then surely we MUST have a six-game winning streak coming up! Then all will be right with the world.

Yeah team!

Hey, why don't we play Bloomie more often?

Spectacular Colossal Failure

2007-08-30T21:22:00.000-07:00

The Angels series was extremely disappointing, but tonight is the kind of game that gets a manager fired. Tonight was the most amazing example of manager ineptitude I think I have ever seen.

I'm not second guessing John McLaren here, I questioned every move he made tonight while he was making it, hell I predicted a couple of his idiotic strategies before he did them. This was a brutally managed game. Just abysmal.

Raul Ibanez hit cleanup tonight against a left handed starter. Ibanez is slugging 351 against left handers. He has one homer against lefties in 131 at-bats.

McLaren used Sean Green for three batters and lifted him with the bases empty.

In the middle of a 6 game losing streak, McLaren has given a start to a no-hit, all glove second baseman and tonight a powerless second baseman with the approximate range of the Diet Pepsi machine, all because his best second baseman missed a tag on a terrific pop-slide at second base in a game the team lost 6-0.

Sexson continues to start over Broussard despite a public admission that Sexson is hurt.

I could go on and on about his bullpen usage, but I'll just leave it at this:

Rick "Cock-sucking, Mother-fucking, Furry Blond Fucking Gopher on his Chin-Wearing" White was pitching in the bottom of the ninth, with the bases loaded, while the best reliever in the GOD DAMN LEAGUE hasn't pitched in 6 days. 6 days! 6 Days!!!!!!!!!
What in the name of all that is good and holy is he saving JJ for? WHAT???

Enjoy your half a season of managing, John McLaren. I can't see you getting a shot again.

Carp!

2007-08-29T06:30:00.000-07:00

Tuesday night's loss highlights so many weaknesses of the current M's team.

1. Lousy starting pitching. Spicoli couldn't hold a 5 run lead. Despite a recent run of usefulness, he still pretty much sucks.

2. An offense of hackers. You can't really complain about too much about the offense when you score 6 runs, but how did they let Dustin Moseley shut them down for 5 and a third? on 54 pitches?

3. Handing out playing time for all the wrong reasons. Jose Lopez gets benched for presumably missing the tag on Matthews the night before. Bloomquist goes 0 for 3.

4. Terrible left field defense. Guerrero's RBI double to left in should have been an out. It was well hit, but certainly catchable. Ibanez jumped for it, but it wasn't over his head, it was 3 feet to his left. His route was terrible and he is painfully slow. Raul's post AS break success has come mostly against righties. He would make a great platoon DH. Adam Jones continues to kiss pine.

5. General bullpen mismanagement including the Fetish for Veterans. Reitsma, Parrish, and now Rick White. Three pretty bad pitchers that McLaren has let pitch in crucial situations, because they are experienced. Rick White is, without question, the worst pitcher in the bullpen. Its not even close! And there he was, facing Vlad Fucking Guerrero in the eighth inning with the bases loaded. I understand that if Morrow and Green had pitched better, they wouldn't have had to go to White. But the bottom line is that if you manage your pen so that Rick White is the guy you have pitching the most crucial at-bat of the game, then you suck as a manager. And Putz hasn't pitched in 4 days.

This has been a great year for the Mariners. I am rooting like crazy for them. I desparately want a Felix win today so we are still vaguely alive in the West. But this team is badly constructed and poorly run. There is no getting around this.

That was disappointing

2007-08-28T08:17:00.000-07:00

I was there, the crowd was very into the game, particularly early. You know, before we got down 6 to zip. Johnny Mac getting tossed definitely got the crowd riled up. That was fun. Not exactly a sea of blue either. It didn't appear that there was any more than there would have been normally. Lots of good non-orchestrated chants throughout the game. A couple of I-chi-ro! one and 3 or 4 Lets! Go! Mariners! Its alwasy nice to see a crowd cheer without being commanded to by the Jumbotron.

Lopez definitely was too nonchalant on the tag of Matthews at second. But Matthews evasion of the tag was awesome. 99% of the time, baserunners just slide into Lopez' tag, especially when they are out by that much. So yes he should have been more agressive there, but baseball is funny that way. If he goes and puts a hard tag on Matthews, that Angels are probably bitching after the game about how unneccesary it was.

Anyway, the pitching matchups get better for us after this game, with Spicoli versus Santana the Lesser tonight and then Felix versus Spicoli's Little Brother on Wednesday.

The only result that is definitive in this series is a sweep by the Angels. Anything else and there is still a lot of baseball left to play. That being said, it would be great to get the next two.

Got your Blue on?

2007-08-27T09:29:00.000-07:00

Although part of me resents that the Mariners are orchestrating this (Did someone tell Cardinals fans to wear red to their games? Or KC Chiefs fans? Hardly!) I am so jazzed up for this series that I don't care!

I'm wearing blue today, I'm going to the game tonight, if I could find a rally monkey I'd hang it in effigy!

Go M's!

Not Dead Yet!

2007-08-19T18:37:00.000-07:00

41 games to play.

First in the Wildcard race.

2 games behind the Anaheim Chokers of Los Angeleheim, CA

Woot!

An homage to good baseball, bad baseball decisions and Tatonka reporting

2007-08-16T19:33:00.000-07:00

If you're a regular reader of this blog (and to all five, I salute you!), you'll notice that virtually every post is tinged with a mixture of wonderment and disgust. The former at the M's astonishing August appearance in a pennant race, the latter at the overt and covert blunderings management has perpetrated on the team this entire season.

To that end, I thought I'd capture some of the opinions posted already this season as evidence of these diametrically-opposed attitudes, preluded by the post titles. It's a montage of sentiments, with the authors acknowledged accordingly:

Rey Frickin' Ordonez: Tad posted on this backup-shortstop non-roster tryout when he was on the verge of making the big club after a good spring. Never mind that he was 36, had a career .246 BA, no speed and had been out of baseball for two years at the time. Thankfully, that never happened. Perhaps I should be applauding Bavasi and company for dodging an injury-riddled, no hit, no speed (but good glove) bullet, but that would amount to damning with faint praise.

"Real" baseball today: Jason waxed philosophically about Jeff Weaver, Bill Bavasi and the inter-twined cluelessness of this pair of thick-headed baseball dunderheads.

Our long regional nightmare is over! Tad's post again, this time after a six-game losing streak had just ended, with management heads intact - for now. However, he did laud Hargrove's use of the bullpen in that game. Not every move management (Bavasi, Lincoln, Hargrove) made was questionable this year. Just most of them.

M's cut bait, kinda: Tad talks about the placement of Jeff Weaver on the DL despite anything obvious as to what his "injury" was. Apparently general suckitude is a medical condition.

When will the hurting stop? In an excellent (albeit long) dissertation, Jason points out the laughable notion that Weaver and Batista were "among the top six starters the Mariners targeted this October" (per Bavasi). Though we all agreed that $17M combined for those two hacks bordered on lunacy, I must admit that they have been - remarkably - two of our most consistent starters over the past two months. Regardless, even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while. Bavasi, most assuredly, is a blind squirrel. He'll be known forever in Mariner lore as the biggest dumpster-diver in GM history.

We're saved! The forgettable Jason Davis acquisition is discussed by Jason, who points out that the Mariners have cornered the market on Jasons.

First versus. last: a microcosm: I analyze the flawed components of team Seattle in a single game versus the superior inter-league Padres.

How to Build a Winning Franchise: Part 1, Milwaukee Brewers: A long, long, long post by (who else) Jason comparing the successful rebuilding of the Milwaukee Brewers as opposed to the poorly-constructed, George-Jetson-on-the-treadmill Mariners. Bill, stop this crazy thing!

Giddy? Up: Jason captures the dichotomy mentioned earlier perfectly with his excitement over the team making a move up the standings despite, " ... even if the slumping Sexson fails to recover; even if Rauuuuul can't defeat age or his mystery shoulder injury; even if our DH is Jose Vidro rather than a real MLB starter; and even if we keep throwing awful starters at least 60% of the time--even if all these things continue to be true--then this club looks like it should achieve a .500 record?! Or better???!"

Well, that really sucked: Tad lays out the inept lineup Grover trotted out on a Sunday, to wit:

CF Ichiro
3B Lopez
2B Vidro
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
RF Broussard
Ca Johjima
SS Betancourt

The no-power, no-defense, no-speed lineup. Station-to-station, baby!

Ok, this is getting serious: 12 games over .500, 3.5 games out of first, and yet Jones languishes in Tacoma, Vidro's fat ass patrols second base and the starting pitching still blows chunks after spots 1-3. Tad's on a roll.

Stop standing still! Written at the trade deadline by Tad. The post title says it all.

The essential problem with the M's as an organization: The Times' Geoff Baker and Tad nail it with respect to management philosophy in this post (and the supporting Times piece). The M's guarantee AB's for slumping and fading veterans while promising youngsters get little or no time to develop. The cycle perpetuates itself as a result. This is the basic problem with the "rebuilding on the fly" strategy.

How to fix the pitching staff: to Morrow! I rant about my favorite topic of recent weeks: sending Morrow down to stretch himself into a starter, then bring him back up in mid-August to bolster the back end of the staff. Naturally, we instead continue to hand the ball to Ho-Ram.

No stupid trades... no stupid tades ...
Addition by nothing

Heartfelt exhortations by Jason and I to Bavaisi, sandwiched around the trade deadline - one not to make ANY moves at the deadline lest he mortgage the future for nothing, the other lauding the team for indeed NOT mortgaging the future for a typically-lame Mariners' deadline deal.

Bavasi still doesn't get it: Despite the desperate need for an offensive sparkplug, the M's kept Jones in the dungeon far too long. Bavasi said, in paraphrase, that young kids can't be counted on in a playoff run. Chris Duncan, Bobby Jenks and F-Rod bely that bit of Bavasi blather, courtesy of this Tad post.

Yay, Richie Sexon! Boo, John McLaren! Heroics on the field, yet managerial stupidity in bringing in the recently-acquired 7th man of a 7-man bullpen with the game on the line - with nearly (and predictably) disastrous results. Tad shrieks, "Boo!"

Cleaning up Bavasi's mistakes: A Jason post discussing who is worse, the terrible Horacio Ramirez or the washed-up 44-going-on-99 David Wells. Ouch.

It's been a great season so far, on the field and here in the Tatonka section of the bleachers. You know where that is - just behind the right field foul pole.

McLaren: "We know why HoRam blows"

2007-08-16T15:54:00.000-07:00

In an astounding discovery today at MarinersLabs, Head researcher John McLaren revealed the source of Horacio Ramirez's struggles facing major league hitters:

"What we're looking for is a location of the fastball and a differential of the fastball and changeup," McLaren said. "He's pitched some good games for us. We haven't given up on him. I know a lot of people are down on him. He still believes in himself. 'Chavy' is going to try some things with him and see if we can get him back on track."

Checking the recent logs at MLB.com's Gameday feature, SuperGenius McLaren is clearly correct in his assertion that HoRam is currently suffering from the malady of too little separation in speed between "fastball" and anything else. I mean, those radar guns were just lying when they detected such speeds as 87-91 (mostly 89) for fastballs, and 77-83 (mostly 83) for offspeed junk. To throw any slower and get the pitches to cross the plate, Ramirez will have to learn a knuckler or an eephus pitch, and fast.

Location? Well, you've got me there, but if Raffy Chaves can fix command issues for guys with hittable, non-major league quality stuff, in only one between-starts session, well, we shouldn't have given up on White Flag so soon. And maybe that Morrow kid could use a little instruction.

Sure, sure, this is McLaren blustering to the press to deflect well-deserved criticism and blame away from HoRam's tender ego, lest we make him ineffective by deriding him. May it never be.

Baseball hell.

The answer, my friend, is HoRam in the wind....

Cleaning Up Bavasi's Mistakes

2007-08-15T15:38:00.000-07:00

To respond to/build on Tad's excellent post:

Look, David Wells at this point in his career is only the correct answer to the question "Who ate the rest of the pizza? ALL of it??"

Wells, currently 44 years old, melted down for the San Diego Padres this season, to the tune of a 5.54 ERA in 118 2/3 IP. In the puny National League West. It's only that GOOD because he got 12 of his 22 starts in very friendly and spacious Petco Park.

I know, I know...his peripherals say that he's still got something in the tank. 4.86 FIP, 4.81 xFIP, 33 BB to 63 SO.

But two things are going on here. First, HoRam sucks SOOOOOOOOO much that in comparison, those numbers look good to us. (Thanks again for the NEAT Soriano-HoRam trade, Bill!)

Second, those crap numbers mask what viewers saw occurring when they watched the 44 year old pitch in several outings this season. He's lost command of his pitches. (Funny thing, too...other peripheral numbers support this view).

Let's start with a number I already reported, but in the wrong form to see just how limp Wells's age 44 season has been:

63 K in 118 2/3 IP can also be stated as 4.6 K/9, which is where Wells has been since 2005 ended; he's not had an inspiring K/9 since 2002, when he was a mere 39 years old. That 33 BB, though, works out to 2.4 BB/9, which is a figure WAY above career, last year, or any other combination of his numbers you want to assemble. I'm not just talking about his final atrocious 5 starts after the All-Star Break. Although he sure looked like he'd lost command by that point. Yelling at umps for not calling pitches was surely born out of his frustration that he could no longer put the ball where he wanted it, over a stretch of over a month...nay, the entire season.

If you're going to walk that many batters, you'd better strike guys out (oops, not Wells), or else induce huge numbers of grounders to wipe them out on the basepaths with plenty of DPs. Well, David Wells has sucked at that prodigiously all season as well (again, NOT just his final month meltdown). He's down in 2007 to 41.7% of his balls in play being grounders, from a career mark just south of 50%. That's a huge drop.

From the perspective of any other GM running a playoff contender, we'd HAVE to conclude that the very large sign on David Wells reads "Just walk away."

However, because Bavasi PLANNED to hand the ball to HoRam every five days, we're ALL in baseball hell...where signing David Wells really isn't much of a gamble. So why not? Sign him up. Maybe he can be the second coming of Tatonka.

At least baseball hell comes with a pennant race, which is more than I expected this season to yield. Go M's!

HoRam = HoRrible

2007-08-15T07:41:00.000-07:00

Horacio Ramirez has a 7.38 ERA. He has more walks (32) than strikeouts (31). Opponents are batting .341. against him. He's allowing nearly 2 baserunners an inning. I don't know what more I can say.

What are our options, really though?

We can try Feierabend again. Ugh. Among the other Tacoma starters Jorge Campillo has a 3.31 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 130 innings. Panzer Lehr has a 4.20 ERA and has struck out just 54 in 105. Robert Rohrbaugh looked pretty good in AA and has held his own in T-Town (2.79 ERA, 36 Ks in 61 innings). By the way, I know that ERA isn't the best way to measure a pitcher, especially a minor leaguer, but I'm lazy today, so shoot me.

Some people think David Wells is the answer, and I'd certainly be willing to give him a spin the rest of August to find out.

The bottom line is, we are in a pennant race!!! We can't punt every fifth game.

Yay, Richie Sexson! Boo, John McLaren!

2007-08-14T05:45:00.001-07:00

Okay, 9th inning monster walk-off shots are so cool! And we absolutely need to win these types of games. Our runs scored/runs against numbers just don't support the record we have put up, so we need to keep winning the close ones.

And lets hope that Big Sexy is back on his game. That we are going to see 8 weeks of awesome from our first baseman. I still don't know why he couldn't have "found his stroke" in a platoon with Broussard, but I hope this is it for Sexy.

On the other hand, both Walt and Jason have wondered why we traded for John Parrish, but I think we all had a "oh, well" attitude about it. After all we are talking about the 7th man in a 7 man bullpen. The long guy, the mop-up guy.

Enter John McLaren, who decides to try Parrish as a situational lefty, trying to protect a 2 run lead against Johan Freaking Santana! One 4 pitch walk, a single, and a sacrifice later, the tying runs are in scoring position with only one down. Nice work Parrish! The only out he got, the Twins were trying to make on purpose!

Why would you trade for a guy with an ERA north of 5, only 36 strikeouts in 43 innings and almost as many walks as strikeouts? And more importantly, why would you use that guy to try and protect a two run lead late? Arggggghhhh!

Who's Excited?

2007-08-13T18:07:00.000-07:00

Come on, if you aren't jazzed about Hernandez v Santana, Wild Card implications and a chance to pick up half a game on the idle Angels, you are an unfeeling, uncaring, heartless crank. Or you've got dinner plans...

A high point, a Lowe point

2007-08-09T22:23:00.000-07:00

The Mariners would be in the playoffs if the season started today. Hurray!

Obviously, the Mariners have done many things right this season. Behind the scenes, however, they've made some puzzling player/personnel moves. Picking up John Parrish would appear to be one of them.

He's a 29 year-old lefty, set to join a bullpen replete with left-handers already: Sherrill, Rowland-Smith (whose name evokes memories of Mr. Miagi's line, "What are you - some kind of girl?") and O'Flaherty. As has been mentioned already, he's coming off the dreaded Tommy John surgery, and has a few fairly good peripherals: 3.52 ERA since the All Star break, .236 B.A. against vs. right-handed hitters, .270 vs. lefties, .252 overall. He has a few pretty bad ones, too: 36/33 K/BB ratio and an overall ERA of 5.40. He seems all right in a shrug-your-shoulders-and-go-meh kind of way - a probable 6th or 7th man in your seven-man bullpen. But it begs the question: why?

The M's have more lefties in the pen than probably every other team in Major League baseball history now. They are the Hunt brothers of MLB, cornering the market on a scarce commodity. Meanwhile, Mark Lowe and his 95 mph fastball gets sent back to Tacoma. Lowe's fastball, had it been utilized sufficiently to strengthen into a 97-98 mph fastball like last year, would have fit like a glove in the setup man role, freeing up Brandon Morrow for more important duty. Speaking of duty, that's what starting pitcher Horacio Ramirez looked like tonight, giving up seven earned runs and five walks in five innings of work. Had the M's heeded my advice (and I'm sure Bavasi furtively peruses this blog daily) and sent Brandon Morrow down to work on converting into a starter, we would be well on our way to seeing the end of Ramirez' reign of terribleness.

It's remarkable that a team run as poorly as Bavasi has orchestrated this year (and, as painfully documented, previous seasons) somehow still sits in the wild card lead and is a mere 2.5 games out of first. He reminds me of Don Knotts' Mr. Furley on Three's Company, who somehow managed to get the girl anyway every few seasons despite the ridiculous bungling. Let's see if Bavasi can bungle the Mariners to the dance this year or not.

The Day We Won the West

2007-08-09T18:00:00.000-07:00

Well, just call it a season now, folks. The Mariners, behind supergenius Bill Bavasi, have just pulled off the trade coup of the century, adding that final piece that will push this team over the top to make us not only an ice cold lock for AL West champs this season, but also will propel us through the playoffs and straight to the World Series.

That's right...we just picked up a left hander who represents the final piece of the puzzle.

...what? The guy we got was John Parrish? John Parrish, Mr. "I can't find the plate with both hands?" Mr. "but Tommy John surgery made so many other guys better pitchers!" Mr. "but I was really good as a reliever in AA?"

Never mind. Sorry, nothing to see here. Move along.

Same old Mariners. I'm STILL in baseball hell. Hey, look, now we think Turbo's a second baseman! Wheeeeee!

Hell to the yeah!

2007-08-09T07:40:00.000-07:00

A Vidro homer, an Ibanez homer and best of all.....

We are in the playoffs! As of right now, this morning, we are the Wild Card leader. Amazing!

756

2007-08-08T08:17:00.000-07:00

Here's the thing. I don't care. Why?

I don't know for a fact that Bonds cheated. I suspect that he did. If I could place a bet on whether he did or not, I would bet yes, but I don't know. And I can tell myself over and over again, "innocent until proven guilty," but the end result is that I just don't care.

I have the DirecTV Extra Innings package. I could have watched every one of Bonds ABs, but I didn't. I didn't watch last night and I didn't watch the night he hit 755. I watched the game where Maddux pitched but that was more for Mad Dog than for Barry.

I'm not really the other way either. I'm not booing when he bats (though I did when he was here last year), I'm not indignant that a 'roider holds one of baseball's hallowed records. Actually, I believe that PED's or no, Barry Bonds is probably one of the 5 or 10 best players in baseball history and quite possibly the best to play in my lifetime.

But between the steroids and the ongoing investigations and the carefully worded denials and the freakin' flaxseed oil defense and the non-stop relentless coverage by ESPN and others...I just don't care.

There. I said it.

McLaren starting to settle in

2007-08-04T07:42:00.001-07:00

So in the last 3 days, we've seen Broussard play first against a righty (with every indication of more of that to come), Adam Jones play left against a lefty, and McLaren bring his right handed setup man into a game in the 5th, because there were two men on and Manny Ramirez at the dish.

And we heard that Vidro might see some time at second if Lopez continues to struggle. This also creates ABs for Jones by the way.

At first I dismissed Geoff Baker's suggestion that some of these moves had to wait until McLaren had had time to get a handle on the clubhouse and such. Isn't that the point of promoting your bench coach? He already knows the team, right?

However with a bunch of these moves starting to come in succession, with a bunch of veteran players being told they need to produce or lose playing time, its starting to appear that this is exactly what happened. McLaren wanted to give guys a chance to produce under his watch and now he's making the moves needed to make this club better.

I like it. I like it a lot. And we are 1/2 of a game out of the playoffs! Woo!

Jose Guillen also doesn't get it

2007-08-02T08:14:00.000-07:00

Geoff Baker writes here the following, regarding his report that the M's will finally bring Adam Jones up Friday, and how that news "pissed off" RF Jose Guillen:

"I guess they have something to do but this is a totally different league,'' he continued. "I understand he's a good prospect and if they think that he's ready, then hey we'll see.

"He's going to have to come here and prove that to us. Because this team has been good with what we have and I don't think that's what we need...he's a No. 1 prospect and he's going to be here sooner or later somehow, some way, but I just completely don't understand that move right there.

I don't know what they're trying to do. I hope they don't do something stupid to mess with the lineup that we have. Because I believe we have a pretty good one.''

Remember when Junior publicly complained about something that was entirely within Woody Woodward's job as GM to decide? It was after the 1994 season, Buhner's contract was up, and Griffey made it clear that the team HAD to re-sign Bone. Or else. It wasn't quite so clear at the time that locking Buhner up for three more years at what was then a premium ($15.5M/3 years) was such a good idea, but Griffey had such pull that the deal got done. Ken Griffey, Jr., Assistant GM. It all worked out OK, as I recall....

Well, the quote above from Jose Guillen shows us the folly of putting personnel decisions in the hands of athletes. The Kid could get away with it because he was a superstar. Guillen? My initial reaction is "moron." I suppose he gets kudos for, as Geoff Baker points out, making public his true reaction to the move, rather than spouting the company line. But beyond that, what does Jose Guillen know about building a winning ballclub? We're 3 games back of the Angels, one of our best hitters is in AAA, and he doesn't want to make the move because AAA is a different league than MLB?

You know what? That IS the company line!!! I mean, I'd say 'thank goodness Jose Guillen isn't calling the shots around here,' except that the guy who does, Bill Bavasi, has expressed precisely the same sentiment, in public, this week. This entire Mariner organization is maddening.

You know what's going to happen already. Adam Jones will come up (although I'll believe it when I see it, at this point), and no matter how they use him, and no matter how he plays, and no matter how much that helps the offense, he'll get blamed when our crap starting rotation just isn't enough to get us into the playoffs.

I'm in baseball hell.

Bavasi still doesn't get it

2007-07-31T20:59:00.000-07:00

I should be happy right? We somehow managed not to give up one of our top prospects for Al Freakin' Reyes. Woo! We didn't find a capable 4th starter either, but that was never really a possibility, soooo, whatever.

But then Bavasi just blew my mind. On KJR, Gastineau asked him if having Adam Jones in the hole didn't make it easier for him not to go after a position player at the deadline.

Billy Boy didn't dodge or dissemble, he revealed his weakness straight out. I'm paraphrasing, but it was basically, we don't trust young players in a pennant race. We want veterans for those spots.

Its not just that he believes that Sexson and Ibanez will turn it around despite mounting evidence to the contrary. He also believes that Adam Jones cannot contribute this season, no matter how good he plays.

Bill, I'd like you to meet Chris Duncan. As a rookie in 2006 he hit 296/363/589 in 90 games for the Cardinals. He hit 22 homers in a little over half a season and made a nice offense/defense platoon in left field with So Taguchi. Oh yeah, the Cardinals won the World Series in 2006.

This guy over here? Bobby Jenks. In 2005 he appeared in 32 games for the White Sox. He struck out 50 in just 39.1 innings, eventually earning the closer job. He saved 2 game in the ALDS and two more in the World Series. Which the White Sox won.

Its not just F-Rod in 2003, Bill! Rookies come up and contribute to playoff teams every year! Lew Ford, Justin Morneau, Chad Qualls, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, on and on and on.

Adam Jones can help this club, right now. He can help them make the playoffs, he can help them in the playoffs. If there is something specific your people see in Jones that tells them he's not ready, fine. But believing that he can't help because he's not a veteran? That's 7 kinds of stupid and it ignores mountains of available evidence.

Of course that's how most decisions get made in the Mariner front office. Ignoring mountains of evidence. Dammit.

Addition by nothing

2007-07-31T19:44:00.000-07:00

It's a sad commentary on our management when the general consensus is a collective sigh of relief that Bavasi didn't make yet another bad trade to "bolster" our playoff chances.

Even before Bavasi, our history at the deadline hadn't been good. Heathcliff Slocumb for Lowe and Varitek, anyone? Jose Cruz for Mike Timlin and Paul Spoljaric? The list goes on. Under Bavasi, it's been sort of a weird priority inversion: trades smacking of desperation in the offseason for older, mediocre players making big money, and abject silence during the few playoff runs the team has had under his tenure.

Watching the M's go down 4-0 after two innings tonight, however, underscores the critical need for help with the starting pitching. Weaver has done well in the last 4-5 weeks, but is not to be trusted to continue the streak - as evidenced by the results so far tonight. Ramirez is no better. Even if one can make the argument that Hernandez, Washburn and Batista are adequate, there's substantively nothing afterwards.

Despite that, at least Bavasi didn't give up Jones or Balentien for a $12 million bag of balls. He used up his quota when we acquired Vidro.

Bavasi's Monday to-do list

2007-07-31T08:17:00.000-07:00

Beat Angels: Check!

Trade power hitting outfield prospect for old middle reliever to solve a perceived problem that doesn't exist: Dang Braves!

Call Rangers about Gagne: Move to Tuesday's list.

Call up outfield prospect to replace the animatronic version of Raul in left: Hey! Who put that on there!

No Stupid Trades...No Stupid Trades...

2007-07-31T06:48:00.000-07:00

I've tried to avert my eyes, but I can't give up hope that this team might start making decisions that I can get behind. I even praised Bavasi for a move that, in retrospect, was just one of those wild rumors that make all kinds of sense but do not actually happen.

Today, then, the trade deadline. (The non-waiver trade deadline.) We're not seriously talking about trading for an OF/hitter (Adam Jones?), or a RHP setup guy (Sean Green, Mark Lowe, even George Sherrill, who's a lefty but gets RHB out just the same), are we? The GIANT, GLARING, NEARLY AS BLINDING AS BAVASI'S BALD PATE weakness on this team is...let me think...STARTING FREAKIN' PITCHING!!!!

So IF we're going to be involved in trade talks as buyers (fine with me), it CAN'T be to waste more minor league talent to bring in players just like those we already have in the organization. It HAS to be built around SP.

Ladies and gentlemen, while I am oh so willing to be persuaded that Bill Bavasi is competent at his job in general, I am terrified of him as GM of my team when trade talks are brewing. Of the 30 GMs in baseball, only a couple are clearly worse than ours at negotiating trades with their counterparts. And Jon Daniels appears to be learning, leaving only Dave Littlefield as competition for worst trader.

So unless you're trading with Littlefield's Pittsburgh for a nice young SP with talent (LHP Tom Gorzelanny? RHP Ian Snell?), don't make any trades at all...because by definition, they'll be stupid trades.

How to fix the pitching staff: to Morrow!

2007-07-28T12:32:00.000-07:00

Thank goodness the "good Felix" appeared last night - just in the nick of time. Ichiro, Vidro, Guillen and Beltre swung the bat well, and the bullpen locked down the win with two scoreless innings as the M's finally broke their seven-game losing streak with a 7-1 triumph.

Even team-killer Jose Guillen sensed the importance of the victory, which snapped a season-long losing streak. "That was a very important win for us", he said. "Guys were starting to panic, saying 'Let's go! We have to get a win'".

Although the offense was largely to blame for the recent cold spell, it has, for the most part, performed well enough to win games. Six of the nine regular position players are batting .269 or above as of this writing, the team is 7th in the A.L. in runs scored, 4th in batting average, 7th on OBP and 8th in OPS. No great shakes, but certainly adequate in most of the major metrics.

Let's turn to the pitching. Here's where the M's rank (A.L. only) in the major pitching categories: 11th in ERA, 11th in strikeouts, 9th in hits allowed, and 10th in WHIP.

With the bullpen having performed so well this year, clearly the starting pitching is the team's Achilles heel. Felix isn't consistent, Washburn is pitching more like a #3, Batista is, well, Batista and Weaver and Ramirez are ticking time bombs. Bavasi is scouring the major leagues as the trade deadline approaches for a big arm to add to the faltering staff, no doubt pondering whether someone like Roy Oswalt is worth Adam Jones. However, there's someone out there whose fastball touches 98 mph who would fit like a glove in the #4 slot, bumping Weaver to #5 and Ramirez to long relief. He's young, readily available and would cost the Mariners the grand total of 0 prospects or major leaguers, since he's already on the roster.

Remember the two scoreless innings of bullpen mop-up duty mentioned above? Hello, Brandon Morrow.

No, his arm isn't quite "ready" for 6-7 inning duty right now. On the other hand, neither is Dustin Moseley's for the Angels, yet with Colon on the DL, that's who will be replacing him in the rotation. Moseley doesn't deserve to walk on the same side of the street as Morrow from a potential perspective. Morrow's got the big arm, has started in college and is already used in 2+ inning stints, as evidenced by last night's game. Send him down to Tacoma for a few weeks to get his arm in shape. It's a complete waste to have him close out a 7-1 game when Green, Reitsma, Sherrill and Lowe are ready and waiting to serve in the set-up role.

Mac, send Morrow down - today - and elevate the others as you see fit to his role. Go with the hot hand if you like, or strictly by the book. Let's not waste Morrow's first-round talent now, especially when the Mariners have so many options at the moment. What they don't have is quality starting pitching beyond their top three, and that's precisely what he'd bring to the table.

Oh, while you're at it, bring Adam Jones up, too. He's the only seasoned prospect of his caliber still languishing in the minors in baseball. But that's another topic for another day.

I will boldly predict that this team will win the AL West if Morrow is made a starter within the next three weeks. The Angels have the upper hand, but are battling starting pitching problems of their own now and don't have the offensive depth we do. If it doesn't happen, and especially if they don't go get someone of Oswalt's caliber on the trade market, they won't. Simple as that.

Get it done.

The essential problem with the M's as an organization

2007-07-27T06:38:00.000-07:00

I written about this before. I've called it "management by faith." The Mariners, over and over, make judgments about players based on little more than faith that someone can repeat their best seasons.

Where Billy Beane signs guys after down years or injuries for next to nothing, proverbially taking a flyer and cutting bait when it doesn't work out, Bavasi hands out 5 to 10 million dollar contracts to fading veterans like they were candy and stubbornly hangs on to those veterans until they are literally booed out of town.

Geoff Baker at the Times nails it in regard to this season:

But for too long on this team, too many veterans on this team have been guaranteed at-bats and favored spots in the order without seemingly having to earn them. This isn't about past performance any more. It's about putting the best lineup out there to help make sure a rare playoff shot doesn't slip through your fingers.

Just too many at-bats wasted on Sexson, Ibanez and Vidro. And too many guys allowed to just hit their way through slumps. What ever happened to giving a guy who is struggling a day off? You don't think Kenji needs a day off right now? Lopez? Instead the Mariners have faith. They keep rolling Sexson and Raul out there because they are sure that today, this very game, they are going to start hitting.

And Adam Jones keeps destroying AAA pitching.

And our playoff hopes go down the drain.

Finally blew one Cy

2007-07-26T19:19:00.000-07:00

Last night as Tad points out JJ blew one. T also mentions the psychological damage done to a team after such a game. What hurts more is the chance JJ had of a Mariner getting a .......(hush now) Cy Young award.

Yes, it is only barely past the midway point in the season, but using ESPN's Cy Young predictor CYP=((5*IP/9)-ER)+(SO/12)+(SV*2.5)+(shutouts)+((W*6)-(L*2))+(victory bonus)), and assume a Save for the night. He would have a 110, second only to Haren of the Athletics.

Now he is 5th.

AAAUUUGGGGH!

2007-07-26T08:03:00.000-07:00

That one hurt, it really did.

No knock on JJ, everyone blows one sometime, and he's been awesome this year. But last night really hurt. Why?

The M's came back 3 times. 3 times! And finally took the lead.

Adrian Beltre put the team on his back last night. Beltre! That doesn't happen that often. We need to win when he plays like that.

How much better would we feel if we had snapped the losing streak? The difference between a 1-6 trip and a 2-5 isn't that great. But the difference between a 6 game losing streak and a 1 game winning streak? Huge.

Argh!

Stop Standing Still!

2007-07-25T08:05:00.000-07:00

Dear Mr. Bavasi:

At the All-star break, there were all these rumors that you were going to bring up Adam Jones or trade for a starter or a reliever. Everyone got excited! You had daily talk show positive news!

But you apparently didn't want to rock the boat. You were on a hot streak and as every Bull Durham Fan knows, you never fuck with a hot streak. So you've done nothing. Well you've done a few things. You guys moved Morrow out of the setup role. Good. Unfortunately, you've left him in the major league pen in a mop-up role, instead of learning how to start in the minors. Bad. You've also put Chris Reitsma into his set-up spot. Bad. You've plugged HoRam back into his rotation spot with the predictable mixed results.

Look, you've lost 5 in a row, but are still only two games out of a playoff spot. You need to make some moves to help this team win! There are lots of things you can do that would cost you nothing!

1. Stop playing Sexson every day. I know that Sexson at his best is better than Broussard, but Broussard right now, is better than Richie right now. He's 7 for 39 (that's .179!) since the break and you guys hav played him every damn day. Not one single day off. Make a platoon if you want. But play Broussard, at first, 3-4 times a week.

2. Stop screwing around with Reitsma and Morrow and make Green and Sherrill your setup men.

3. For the thousandth time! Bring up Adam Jones! Let Ibanez and Vidro have a death match for the DH at bats. This team needs a shot in the arm. Now! You are scoring a little over two runs a game during the losing streak. Jones is hitting 318/384/590 at Tacoma. He can help.

I'd love for you trade for a good starter, but I'm not hearing about a lot of guys out there. But there are 3 moves that would make your team better right now. Do them, Bill! Please.

Your pal,

Tad

Dureza mental, Senor Rey

2007-07-22T18:26:00.000-07:00

My apologies if the title of this post isn't idiomatically correct, as I had to use Babelfish to figure it out, but to plainly state what's becoming more and more obvious: Felix Hernandez lacks mental toughness.

Again, I realize I'm not finding the solution to Zeno's Paradox by saying that (a subtle nod to my father there). His arm is golden, his stuff electrifying. Yet after today's six inning, six earned run outing in an 8-0 loss, he now stands at 6-6 on the season. Sounds like a creepy-yet-winning poker hand, not the stats of a major league staff - especially a team that's just two games out of first in their division. His peripherals are, in many respects, worse than Miguel Batista's, who is at best a #3 and at worst a spot starter/long reliever on another club.

Today's game readily illustrated the highs and lows of Felix Hernandez. He threw four innings of two-hit baseball, matching Roy Halladay pitch for pitch as the M's and Jays were in a scoreless duel. In the fifth, he walked Greg Zaun. Royce Clayton bunted back to the mound, but Jose Lopez failed to cover first base, resulting in runners on first and second. After Reed Johnson sacrificed the runners over and Lyle Overbay was intentionally walked, Alex Rios came to the plate. Hernandez worked the count to 1-2 and then delivered a 95 mph fastball seemingly on the black for strike three. The only problem was that Chad Fairchild didn't see it that way and called the pitch a ball. Visibly frustrated, Hernandez stalked around the mound, drawing a visit from Kenji Johjima. After the visit, Rios drove the very next pitch through the left side for a two-run single. After Fairchild ejected McLaren for arguing the previous pitch, Troy Glaus launched the very next pitch out of the yard for a three-run homer.

After four scoreless innings, three key pitches result in a 5-0 deficit.

It's not just the M's that noticed his meltdown: "We really got a sense that Hernandez was staring to get frustrated and some pitches started coming up in the zone,'' Zaun said. ''Those are the times you have to take advantage, when you have the other team's ace out there and he's lost his composure for whatever reason and you're smelling a big inning.''

Felix is still young and has some of the best stuff in the big leagues. But when Miguel Batista is out-performing you, something is clearly amiss. If the Mariners hope to have any chance to overtake the Angels this year, Hernandez is going to have to toughen up. The best players in sports wrest the spotlight and shine. The spotlight, so far, causes our best pitcher to melt like a popsicle on a hot summer's day.

4-3 Homestand better than it sounds

2007-07-18T22:19:00.000-07:00

Definite playoff atmosphere in tonight's 6-5 victory over Baltimore. McLaren was a little slow to go the bullpen in the 7th and Ben Broussard proved again that he really isn't an outfielder to make this game a nailbiter, but any excuse to watch JJ close out a one run game is okay by me.

4-3 seems like only a moderately successful homestand, but if the M's can play .500 against the good teams like the Tigers and take of 2 of 3 from the lesser teams, they should be fine.

We were outscored on the homestand 39 to 32 so 4 wins is a pretty good outcome. Overall the M's have only outscored opponents by 10 runs, 455-445. By those numbers they should be 46-45 right now, instead of 52-39.

But the Mariners have a couple of things going for them that may allow them to continue to outproduce their Pythagorean projection. First, of course is the shutdown bullpen. Three aces in Putz, Sherrill and Green, and the back end is pretty decent too. Also, I think the nature of the M's starters, a bunch of guys, outside of Felix, who rely on the other team to put the ball in play, and good defense to get outs, means that you are going to have your share of disaster starts, where we are out of it early. But if you get a halfway decent start the offense is good enough to win a lot of games. Maybe someday I'll go back and look at teams that beat their Pythags over a season and see what their starting staffs looked like...probably not though.

What's next? A road trip to Toronto and Texas and then home against Oakland and the Angels. Man, that homestand could be sweet. If you are within two or three of Los Angeles...I'm giddy in anticipation.

More Ichiro!

2007-07-13T15:00:00.001-07:00

Its official! And the AP is reporting the contract as 5 years/90 Million. That's 18 a year. Even better.

This off-season Barry Zito got 18. Carlos Lee got 17. I think I'll take Ichiro, thank you very much.

Playoff Atmosphere?

2007-07-13T08:15:00.000-07:00

Last night's game was great! Tight, competitive, well played. The three weird umpiring incidents just added to the drama (And for the record, Yuni did interfere with Pudge's throw, Guillen may have tagged AB the second swipe and Beltre definitely touched the bag).

But the tight competitive atmosphere was marred by the Mariners treating us to the WORST ANNOUNCER PAIRING OF ALL TIME: Ken Levine and Dave Valle. I understand that they had vacations to work around and then Sims came up sick, but surely they must have a better backup plan than this!

It was excruciating to listen to. I eventually muted it and just listened in silence. Remember the old days when you could turn on the radio and be just a hair behind? Between the satellite and the DVR you are a full two seconds behind now, so that doesn't work.

So to have any sound you had to endure Levine's akward deliveries, poorly timed jokes and Valle's absolute refusal to play along with any of it. The silences after one of Levine's jokes bombed were painful.

Valle, who grew on me a little last season was terrible too. On Sheffield's second steal, Valle said that Felix was paying no attention to him at all. Only Felix had thrown over 4 times at that point. And gone to the plate only twice. If he had thrown over 6 times, would that have qualified as paying attention? 10 times? How many does it take Val?

Anyway, where ever you are Dave Sims, get well soon!

Ichiro!

2007-07-11T07:33:00.000-07:00

The Internets are abuzz with rumors that Ichiro has agreed in principle to a 5-year, $100 million dollar extension.

Although quite a few players are earning over 20 million this season, only three players have signed contracts with an average annual of 20 mil or more. A-Rod, Manny and the Rocket. That's it. The big question is, is Ichiro worth that kind of dough? Is he worth the 4th highest contract of all time?

Offensively he is a great player. By Baseball Prospectus' VORP stat, he's currently the 4th best offensive player in the league. He is significantly behind A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez though. The distance between Ichiro and A-Rod is the same as the distance between Ichiro and 21st place on the list. And this is Ichiro's best season since 2001, very likely his best ever. Even in 2001 he was only 36th in VORP, last year he was 40th (VORP compares you to the hitters at your position, so Ichiro gets an advatange being in center as compared to right). So he is a great offensive player for sure, but not really in the class of A-Rod or Manny as a hitter.

Defensively though, he gains a lot of ground. All the defensive stats (except BP's Davenport Translations) love Ichiro's defense. He has excellent instincts, covers an amazing amount of ground and is a great leaper and wall climber. I don't know that I am ready to call him the best outfielder in baseball though. Carlos Beltran, Andruw Jones, Grady Sizemore, Aaron Rowand, lots of pretty good defensive outfielders out there, still Ichiro is at least in the conversation.

Now lets factor in his basestealing ability. Ichiro has never stolen less than 30 bases in a season, he's never finished worse than 5th in the AL in steals and his career stolen base percentage is is 81%. Just a hair under Joe Morgan's career percentage.

Ichiro is also amazingly durable (He's never missed more that 3 games in a season), an absolute joy to watch play every day and a huge draw for the team and the city. I have not been to a game since he's been here that did not have a sizable group of Japanese tourists here to watch him play.

At the beginning of the year I had little hope that he would re-sign here. If he did I was hoping for 5 and 75 maybe, 5 and 85. So yes, 5 and 100 seems high. He'll be 39 at the end of the contract, but raise your hand if you think Ichiro is likely to age well given his stretching, conditioning and dedication. Yes, the contract is a little high, there is no hometown discount in there at all. But paying a little too much for a true superstar is ok by me.

Its a hell of a lot better than blowing 8-10 million for guys with ERAs over 5!

I take it all back....

2007-07-11T05:24:00.000-07:00

People make mistakes.

I spend a fair amount of time correcting the mistakes of others in everyday life, with the goal of helping them to improve themselves. It's a big part of my job.

So it's no surprise that I would combine that occupational inclination with my devotion to the Mariners, and criticize those in leadership positions for making mistakes when they make decisions that affect my team. More specifically, I've ridden Bill Bavasi for almost his entire tenure as GM of the M's for what seemed to be very few good decisions surrounded by an inordinate amount of mistakes.

Here's the thing: I'm willing to tolerate mistakes, so long as there is evidence that people LEARN from them, and make better decisions going forward.

In the course of the last couple of weeks, Bill Bavasi's front office has demonstrated that they are learning from past and mistakes. Jason Churchill and the P-I are reporting that Adam Jones is coming up after the break to play every day in LF. Turbo to the bench. Ibanez to DH. Whoo hoo!

This couldn't have happened with Mike Hargrove as manager, and although we may never know what REALLY happened with Grover's exit stage left, it seems just as likely as anything else that Bavasi ushered him out the door in preparation for the dawn of the Adam Jones Era.

Now, I'm still not completely happy. Sure, Felix is looking like he might dominate in the second half, but we've still got a horrible pitching rotation. But it's encouraging that Bavasi seems to have learned from his mistakes, and figured out creative (and, let's face it, humble) ways to fix them (Vidro to the bench is necessary but, given what it cost to acquire him and what we're paying him, it's also an admission of a mistake).

49-36.

Two and a half games back.

It's the Angels!

I don't want to hear any wildcard talk. I want to see one more demonstration that Bill Bavasi has learned something from past mistakes: let's have a trade in which we give up none of the important future in exchange for a pitcher to improve on that horrible last spot in the pitching rotation.

I can't recall the last season that was so much fun, since the previous three have just ground me down. But this is great, and I'm willing to recant on my Bavasi criticism as a result.

Kudos!

(Oh, and Ichiro! is staying. Ehhhhhxcellent.)

Ok, this is getting serious.

2007-07-07T20:14:00.001-07:00

12 games over .500

3 and 1/2 games out of first place.

A game and a half out of the wild card.

3 of their last 4, 11 of their last 14, 18 of their last 28.

Defying most expectations, the M's are contenders. We are over halfway through the season and we are definitely in it.

So its time to get serious about things. We have two outfielders tearing it up in Tacoma, Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien. They aren't both going to play next year, so one of them needs to be dealt for a good starter. Not a decent starter, not a gamble, but someone good. If you can get Buehrle for Wlad and one of the kid relievers, you do it.

Next you need to end the Vidro at DH disaster. Yes, the shiny 286 batting average looks good, but there is nothing else there. No walks, no power, no speed, no defense. That's not enough. You have options. You could play Broussard against righties. Hell you could DH Broussard every damn day and be better off.

Even better though, you could bring up Adam Jones, make him your everyday left fielder and push Ibanez to DH. Raul seems really dinged up, letting him DH the rest of the year might get more production out of him, so you potentially could be helping yourself out at two lineup spots. Plus the defensive upgrade would be huge. Maybe Jones can't make the leap, but he seems to have AAA down, so you have to give him a shot. He wouldn't have to play great to improve on Vidro and then you would know what you had for next year.

But next year is next year. Its time to get serious about this year. Right now. Fix the rotation and fix the DH spot, Bill. Its time.

Fire John McLaren!

2007-07-04T09:12:00.000-07:00

Just Kidding!

Seriously, I like the lineup he rolled out there on Tuesday, even though they got crushed.

CF Ichiro
1B Vidro
DH Ibanez
RF Guillen
CA Johjima
3B Beltre
SS Betancourt
2B Lopez
LF Bloomquist

Its creative. With a lefty going for KC, he decides not to use Broussard, but instead of just sticking Willie at first like Grover would have done, McLaren uses teh opportunity to move other guys around.

Getting Bloomquist into the outfield is a huge defensive improvement, and if Vidro is passable at first then its a net gain. Plus if Vidro can play the field even a little bit, it might make him easier to trade in the off-season!

This lineup gives me hope that they might bring up Adam Jones and be able to find some at-bats for him. It gives me hope that they can find more at-bats for Broussard without using him so much in the outfield.

Of course we did get absolutely crushed with this lineup, so what the hell do I know?

Mike Hargrove, quitter

2007-07-03T15:36:00.000-07:00

Lets take Mike Hargrove at his word for a moment. He's lost his passion. He's tired of being criticized in the papers. He wants to watch his kid play baseball. He's 57. He doesn't really need the money. He apparently made up his mind somewhere in the middle of 6 game losing streak.

I can't really argue with that. I have often worked with people who obviously did not like their jobs and I wonder why they keep doing it. So why should he?

I also think that in the long run, they are better off without him. Adam Jones needs to be up and playing this year and that wasn't going to happen on Hargrove's watch. Jose Vidro needs to find his way to the bench and that wasn't going to happen while Mike was here either, especially with Vidro "hitting" 295. Hopefully there is less bunting and more Broussard and days off for Richie against tough righties and Putz might pitch in a tie game before extra innings.

But the bottom line is that Hargrove quit. Few teams benefit from in-season managerial changes. I'm sure there are a lot of guys in the locker room wondering what the hell happened. I hope this doesn't torpedo a season that has so far wildly exceeded my expectations.

Ding Dong!

2007-07-01T21:19:00.000-07:00

Yes, Boys and Girls, the witch is dead! Mike Hargrove, aka the Human Brain Delay, aka Numbnuts, has resigned as Mariner's manager. In the middle of a 6 game winning streak. Officially, Hargrove says his "passion has begun to fade." I'm calling bullshit.

Tatonka proudly presents the top 10 actual reasons Hargrove decided to leave.

10. Pissed off that the Ichi-roll has replaced hot dogs in clubhouse spread.
9. Wants to leave and come back to get an ovation like that Junior kid.
8. Jealous that John McLaren's parking spot reads Mgr(Soon enough).
7. Fucking Broussard keeps throwing it in his face by, you know, hitting.
6. Recent convert to Flying Spaghetti Monsterism. Leaving to spread the gospel.
5. That Bavasi dude looks just like Jay Buhner! Creepy!
4. Jeff Weaver stubbornly refuses to pass the Dutchie! Its selfish, man!
3. Buhner keeps grabbing his ass.
2. Upset that team shaved off his terrible goatee during clubhouse prank.

And the number one reason Mike Hargrove is really leaving the Mariners:

Entering Rehab. Daughter threatened to post video of him shirtless, drunk and eating a hamburger!

Cutting Edge Defensive Ratings

2007-06-28T08:18:00.000-07:00

This is the funniest baseball-related thing I've read in some time, so long as we include the comments as well as the brilliant piece itself.

Of course, the greatest defensive player in the majors today is left off the chart. Let's add him:

Player	Rating	FPCT	Grit
Bloomquist	127.3	0.917	999999

I'd like my crow done medium well, please

2007-06-23T00:17:00.001-07:00

Technically, I didn't say Feierabend would shut down the Reds, but when you make a direct comparison between a raw rookie and Jamie Moyer, you're asking for trouble.

Actually, I meant Jamie Moyer, circa 2004. Seriously.

Could tonight's game have been any more brutal? Feierabend couldn't find the strike zone with both hands and a flashlight, Davis was similarly rocked, the defense committed two errors and Willie Outquist was the hitting "star" with the lone RBI for Seattle. Naturally, he made an out in the process.

Any game in which you lose 16-1 and fail in every phase is painful, but particularly so tonight given the anticipation over Griffey's return. Heck, I was even half-rooting for Griffey to knock one over the wall for old time's sake, yet the best he could do was a single in a 1/5 night. Ironically, in a game where the Reds feasted on M's pitching, he had the worst stat line of all Cincinnati regulars, whiffing three times.

With the offense in deep freeze tonight, they just weren't going to win. But losing 16-1 is an exclamation point with respect to the state of the pitching staff. Felix, Washburn and Batista have been wildly inconsistent this season, and they're clearly the team's top three starters. Maybe we need to coin a Spahn/Sain-esque phrase: The King, Jarrod, Miguel, and two days in Hell.

I've got to go draw horns on Bill Bavasi's visage. Smell you later.

Days of Junior Past

2007-06-22T08:01:00.000-07:00

We make no secret of our adoration for Junior Griffey here at Tatonka.

Its not like we're blind to his weaknesses. He can be whiny, petulant, moody, and thin-skinned. He was notorious for calling out members of the press who had written or said things critical of him wihtout having actually read or heard the criticisms. Although I truly believe his desire to be traded was largely for the reasons he said at the time (to be closer to his family) the way it all went down left a bad taste in my mouth certainly.

But I am more excited about this game tonight as I have been for any game in a long time. At least as far back as Felix's first start, but itmay be even longer since I've been this pumped. I am attending my first game of the year on Saturday. I am Tivoing the game tomight and will probably re-watch the pre-game ceremony at some point in the next week. Get the picture?

There was a preview piece this week in one of the papers. For graphics they used his Upper Deck rookie card (got one), his candy bar (yep), and the Sports Illustrated cover with "The Natural" emblazoned across the front (it got a little beat up in a move, but yes I still have it). I got them all out last night and just kind of looked through them. I might bring my autographed ball (Spring Training 1992) to the game on Saturday, just to have it.

This weekend, I get to see my favorite player of all time. The bat waggle, that perfect swing, hopefully a smile or two, a reminder of the salad days of Mariner baseball. A reminder of the Kid who led us from the darkness, the player who made the Mariners a laughing stock no more. Yeah, I'm a little excited.

Chariots of Feierabend

2007-06-21T23:33:00.000-07:00

The Mariners are my fantasy baseball team - literally and figuratively.

I own plenty of them: Ichiro, Willie Outquist, Miguel Batista, the rights to Mark Lowe and Ryan Feierabend and until a recent trade, Kenji Johjima. Over the years, my team has been peppered with Mariners, which may in part explain my lack of success the past four seasons or so. Figuratively speaking, Bill Bavasi has employed a studs-and-scrubs building strategy, with poor previous results but a modicum of success this season (37-32). So did I, and so have I.

The Mariners have a can't-miss #1 starter, a lethal bullpen and not much in between. I have a can't-miss #1 starter, two lights-out closers and not much in between.

Both the Mariners and the McLaughlin Group ("Wrong!") could use a reliable, innings-eating 5th starter that throws strikes and keeps the team in the game until the 6th/7th innings. Cha Seung Baek was called up to be that guy, but (not surprisingly) has had mixed results, as evidenced by his 5.74 ERA and 1.5 WHIP. So who is riding to the rescue, replacing Baek in the rotation for the M's starting this Friday and may end up replacing one of no-name starters on my fantasy team as well?

Welcome back to the show, Ryan Feierabend.

Feierabend has a fair amount of pundits believing he's got a future in the big leagues. Check out this article from about a year ago in Prospect Insider: http://prospectinsider.wordpress.com/2006/07/19/ryan-feierabend-lhp/

"Then 19, he posted a stingy 1.16 ERA in July and a solid 3.44 mark in August. He’s continued with that success throughout this season, with few exceptions, and it’s probably about time we start talking about him as a legitimate prospect and a serious candidate to break into the M’s rotation within the next two seasons".

And:

"In the 48 2/3 innings, he’s allowed just 13 extra-base hits, including four home runs (he’s surrendered more than two XBH in a start just once). That’s 13 hits of two bases or more in 191 batters faced. That’s impressive for anyone at any level.

He’s tough on lefties (.232 avg, 1HR in 103 batters faced) and has a wicked pick-off move that often times ends up with the first baseman gunning down the runner at second base.

He’s allowed a .173 average to the first batter of the inning and has just three wild pitches all season. he does have areas of concern, such as performing with ducks on the pond and getting tougher with runners in scoring position and two down."

Jamie Moyer with a fastball, anyone?

Granted, that's hyperbole to the nth degree. Feierabend may well have similar inconsistent tendencies that Baek displayed. On the other hand, until Jeff Weaver's soul-selling shutout the other night, he had the longest outing for a Mariners starter this month at 7 1/3 innings. The league is hitting a relatively-modest .279 against him in 16 innings. It isn't a statistically-relevant sample size, but given the studs and scrubs strategy, we'll take it. Just for fun, here are the batting averages against the other M's starters so far this year:

Hernandez: .305
Washburn: .269
Batista: .299
Ramirez: .335
Baek: .292
Weaver: (trivia buffs, take note - this number is identical to Ty Cobb's lifetime BA): .367.

Given the high numbers across-the-board and the disasters that Ramirez and Weaver have been, Feierabend's 4.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and relatively-low BA against portend well for an extended stay in the rotation. Let's hope so. The offense appears generally good enough to produce most nights, the defense is one of the best in the league and the bullpen is top notch. Bavasi's patchwork, crazy quilt rotation is the gigantic Achille's heel of this team.

The Mariners aren't likely to contend for the playoffs this year, but an 84-88 win season would do wonders for the psyches of success-deprived Seattleites everywhere. It might even spare Bavasi and Hargrove from the hangman's noose. Sorry about that, M's fans.

Mike Hargrove's Internal Monlogue

2007-06-21T07:52:00.000-07:00

That's what we signed Weaver for! He's a freaking World Series Hero! He knows how to stop a losing streak. Mmmmm...donuts.

Well, that really sucked

2007-06-18T10:26:00.000-07:00

Just when the M's have imbued us with optimism and got us scoreboard watching, they go and pull this.

One painful 5 game losing streak later and we're back to wondering whether we should trade Ichiro. They had us! And then they lost us.

I know it was a Sunday, a traditional day to get your bench guys in the lineup, Beltre is hurt, Guillen is sore, but the eight guys Numbnuts ran out there really shows how poorly this team is constructed:

CF Ichiro
3B Lopez
2B Vidro
LF Ibanez
1B Sexson
RF Broussard
Ca Johjima
SS Betancourt

Lopez is passable at 2nd, but not a 3rd baseman, Vidro is as bad as advertised at 2nd and Broussard is a pretty mediocre 1st baseman stuck in the outfield. If I were Washburn, I think I would have refused the ball. I know Ellison is no great shakes, but if you won't play your backup outfielder when your starter is hurt, why keep him around?

I guess I'm glad Hargrove is being creative about Beltre being out instead of just plugging Outquist in at third and moving on, but again, if your backup infielder is so bad that you can't play him, maybe you need a different backup infielder!

And! Ron Fairly? Are you kidding me? I'm fine with Blowers getting a series off but Captain Obvious? At one point yesterday, with the M's down 5, he starts up on the "What the Mariners need are a few baserunners," crap. Seriously! Baserunners? Somebody get word to Hargrove! We need baserunners! But before I can say a word, my wife says, "Honey, easy. Easy." She knows I'm this close to reaching through the TV and thrashing Fairly within an inch of his life! Blarg!

Lou's Crew: Respect the Game

2007-06-16T11:21:00.001-07:00

I miss Lou Piniella as manager, but watching the degenerating clubhouse and bunch of guys that is the Chicago Cubs right now, I would hate to be a Cubs fan just about now. Lou has made a caricature of himself in a quest for the dubious record of "most ejected manager ever," and his "leadership" on this issue surely has something to do with the Cubs players recent chronic belligerence.

On the first of June, Carlos Zambrano and catcher Michael Barrett got into a fight in the dugout during an 8-5 drubbing by Atlanta, making the "friendly confines" a bit less so. Barrett required stitches after Zambrano attacked him, apparently frustrated that Barrett allowed a passed ball (but not blaming himself for his own truly sucktastic pitching effort, allowing Atlanta 13 hits and 2 walks with no strikeouts in 5 innings pitched).

Piniella's response to utterly losing control of his team? "These things shouldn't happen. Go fight the other team if you have to."

Subsequently, the Chicago series in Atlanta last weekend saw more fireworks as showboat Alfonso Soriano got hit in the back by Braves starter Tim Hudson one day after clubbing three home runs. The next day, on the 10th of June, Cubs starter Ted Lilly was ejected after hitting Braves shortstop Edgar Renteria with a pitch just ten pitches into the game. It looked innocent enough, and Renteria did not charge the mound, but the benches did empty in the tense environment, and Renteria did manage to smack Mike Fontenot (Cubs second baseman) in the face pretty hard when he arrived at second on a stolen base later in the first.

The point here is that it's apparently OK for Cubs pitchers to hit opposing batters up high (Renteria got beaned in the chin), but not the other way around. This afternoon, in the midst of the fourth inning of no-hit ball in a 0-0 tie in Wrigley, San Diego starter Chris Young rode a pitch up and in that hit first baseman Derrek Lee in the shoulder. The home plate umpire completely abdicated his responsibility here, paying no attention as Lee calmly strode out halfway between home and the mound (in the general direction of first, but NOT down the baseline), exchanged words with Young (who looked apologetic, but who MUST have said something inflammatory to Lee), then stopped and unleashed a huge punch at Young. Young swung back, and a bases-clearing standoff preceded ejections of Lee, Young, Cubs pitching coach Gerald Perry, and Padres pitcher Jake Peavy (whose comments in the paper this week about Soriano's showing up Padres pitchers by admiring one of his home runs surely made him no fans in Chicago).

I can't imagine any on-field behavior that could lower my respect for Derrek Lee more than this. What a buffoon, and a coward. Take your base, play the game. Hit a homer later to get revenge. Did you learn nothing from the immortal Robin Ventura-Nolan Ryan beatdown? Too many baseball players pay too little attention to history. Young, for all his control (this is but his 4th hit batsman in 2007), did not appear to be hitting Lee on purpose, and there's not really any good reason for him to have done so. But Lee instigated the comedic fight, full of swings and misses, and Soriano was clearly laughing about the situation immediately afterward. (Of course, it's hard to respect him much at all, but he's well paid for me not to respect him, so there you go.)

As it happens, I root for neither the Cubs nor the Padres, so I don't care too much about the outcome of this game. But what on Earth has happened to Lou Piniella to turn him into the kind of manager who inspires guys (like Derrek Lee, who once was someone worthy of respect) to be disrespectful to the game and their competitors? Why do you put up with a Soriano? Why can't you control fights within your own team?

Even the WGN announcing duo of Len Kasper and Bob Brenly seems to have bought into whatever story the Cubs are telling about this chronic chaos, as they narrated the fight and its aftermath by trying to blame the Padres for intentionally throwing at Lee, for placing blame (warranted, in this case) on the negligent home plate umpire, and for attempting to exonerate Lee for his actions by pointing out how emotional you get if you're hit by a high pitch--I'm sure that entered their dialogue a week ago in Atlanta, too. Not. I understand backing the home guys, but their verbal contortions to defend Lee's actions were repugnant.

The Cubs are out of control. They're in a weak division that they could still win, but I for one couldn't root for them at this point.

It's very sad, and I'm just glad that it's not happening in Seattle. We remember you fondly, Lou, but in large part it was because your teams USED to respect the game.

In relation to our suddenly struggling Mariners (hey, I thought that interleague play was supposed to spark a huge winning streak? j/k), is the Cubs' example of "fiery play" the kind of thing that Grover has had in mind as missing from the Mariners' dugout? Is that why Bavasi brought in supposed "clubhouse leaders" like Carl Everett and Jose Guillen, to get the team into fights and inspire them by disrespecting the game?

I'm all for a team of surly guys who don't get along but whose talent wins games. I am not at all defending the emphasis on "good guys" who appeal to a "family atmosphere" at the Safe. But there's definitely a line between "talented and surly" and "talented and disrespectful." Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano...Cubs fans can have 'em, if they're gonna cross that line repeatedly. Although since they're still 4 games under .500 despite spending several gajillion dollars on free agents in the offseason...well, I'm sorry Chicago fans. But your team is unlovable right now. I know and respect many Cubs fans, and there's plenty of wonderful tradition on the South Side.

But I'll keep the M's, thanks.

Wee Willie Outquist

2007-06-14T19:19:00.001-07:00

It's a bit refreshing to see the romanticist within all of us peering toward the burgeoning sunlight that is Mariners baseball of late, necks craning skyward, pasty-white faces bathing in something we don't see much of here in Seattle: sports optimism.

Stop the presses! The M's are hot!

Admittedly, I have elements of front-runner within me. I don't enjoy confessing that, but it's true. Yes, I listen/watch games nightly, win, lose or draw. I go to games every year. In fact, the two years I went the most frequently were '05 and '06, coinciding neatly with the nadir of the franchise since the previous bottoming-out in the early 90's. Perhaps God is ordering me to stay away from the ballpark - or else. But the state of the franchise in recent years has gotten me down, and although I'm still cynical, I feel the pangs of optimism stirring within me once again. Despite all the illogical dumpster-diving Bill Bavasi has done during his tenure, maybe this team is finally clicking. Those feelings have brought me back to this blog and have me following the team even more closely. Hope springs eternal.

Given the fairly benign state of affairs at present, then, why am I making a derogatory reference about our jack-of-all-trades utility player? Well, it's like this. You know that old saying, "the only sure things in life are death and taxes"? There's one more sure thing: Willie Bloomquist produces outs. In spades. All the time. Amen.

Actually, it's preordained. The suffix qvist means twig in Finnish. How can poor Willie be expected to hit well when he's metaphorically swinging a twig at the plate? Life imitates art, as they say, and he sure hits as if his bat has all the sock of a twig.

Now, I know what you're going to say. Willie's not that bad, you heartless non-Bloomquistphile. Why don't you do a little research, you anti-Bloomite? Check out his batting average coming into the game today - .254. His career average is .257. No, he won't win a Silver Slugger award, but I wouldn't kick him out of the dugout for eating crackers.

I would. Willie has one overriding ability that makes any other talent he has pale by comparison, and that is his ability to create outs at the plate. Case in point: today's game. With Beltre still suffering from an injury, Bloomquist started once again and played third base. Ordinarily, he'd bat 9th and be the A.L. equivalent of the pitcher's spot in the National League. However, Hargrove decided to bench Jojima and the game was at Wrigley Field, thus leading to a dilemma - who bats 9th? In the end, Grover must have figured Bloomquist's loyalty overcame statistical logic, so he let both Burke and Weaver bat behind him. Given his relatively high position in the lineup, he had a decent chance to generate some runs. Instead, this was his stat line:

0-4, with three K's.

He put the ball in play once. I didn't see the game, but dollars-to-donuts it was a popup or a meek grounder. The other day, I watched him get a hit where it looped past the out-of-position second baseman, hit the dirt on the edge of the outfield grass and squirted into right. Bloomquist epitomizes the saying, "they all look like line drives in the box score."

His average now stands at .239.

Oh, by the way, his slugging percentage now sits at .269. Last year, in 251 AB's, his slugging percentage was .299. He had six doubles, two triples and one miracle home run where he must have caught a 25-mph tailwind and popped it into the first row down the left field line.

Willie has speed. Willie can serve as an adequate defensive replacement late in the game, or pinch run. Maybe he's really adept at washing cars, I don't know. But when it comes to swinging the bat, he's one of the best in the American League at making outs. Period.

Hence the nickname Willie Outquist. It fits like a batting glove - which Willie has no use for anyway.

Heartbreak and other Emotions

2007-06-14T17:36:00.000-07:00

I watched the game today with a certain amount of amusement...there is not a sports team on the planet that has the "right" to out-complain Cubs fans, so when the Cubs' non-inhaling version of Jeff Weaver (Jason Marquis) fell apart in a weird sixth inning (hit the pitcher, bad error by Mark DeRosa at third, and then a bases-clearing double to the ivy by Rauuuuuul) that even saw the home plate umpire lecture Jose Guillen for several minutes because...well, because the ump was in the way--when that happened, it was karma that the Cubs had to come back in unexpected fashion. When even Jeff Weaver scattered TEN (ten, 10, or, if you like X) hits over his six-inning "quality start," you knew something had to go wrong.

And the heartbreak of Brandon Morrow being unable to hit the corners in the eighth (it happens, he was really close on every pitch, but they WERE all balls, alas) and subsequently coughing up a won game couldn't really compare to anything in Wrigley Field, so we don't really get to complain or feel sorry for ourselves.

Two things strike me here. First, I currently lack the doom-and-gloom certainty that this is the beginning of a downward spiral, or the beginning of the end. That's pretty refreshing as an emotion connected to the M's, and it sure surprised me to feel that way when I flipped the TV off after Howry nailed down the final out.

Secondly, though, this whole story points up something interesting about emotions, character, grit (we had both Outquist and Burke in the lineup today...isn't that enough grit to win?), or what have you. There's a reason that sample sizes, rationality, science, and math explain so much about winning or losing major league baseball teams. Sure, we all want to read the schlock that lazy sportswriters dish out about the great chemistry of winning ballclubs (Jeff at Lookout Landing has a fantastic rant on that very point today)--we must, 'cause they keep publishing that dreck--but in truth, a six-month season CAN'T be driven wholly by emotion or character or chemistry. And if it were, we'd have found a way to measure it by now.

So I'll keep rooting, but I'm rooting for runs scored and (for the love of God) better pitching performances, rather than pie-in-the-face team chemistry.

Game of the year?

2007-06-13T08:04:00.000-07:00

That, my friends, was awesome.

Extra inning win? Awesome.

Sherrill's strikeout to get out of a bases loaded jam in the eighth? Awesome.

Putz getting his 4th save in 5 games? Awesome.

Vidro half-heartedly running through a stop sign, dogging it down the line, not sliding or taking out the catcher, then coming back to tag to the plate after Michael "Joe Frazier" Barrett dropped Jacque Jones' six hop throw to the plate?

...

...

...

...

AWESOME!

How did we get here? Offense

2007-06-11T19:43:00.001-07:00

Going into Monday's play the M's are 33-26. 7 games over 500!!! This is a team that was maybe one or two more losses from firing their Numbnut manager in April. How did this happen? How did we get here? Keeping the focus on the positive today, I'd like to focus on how our improved offense has contributed to our surprising rebound.

The offense as a whole has been excellent. The M's are 7th in the AL in runs scored, which would be solid enough for a team that plays half of their games in the Safe. It gets even better though, because they still are 3-4 games behind most of the rest of the league. At 5.22 runs per game they are 4th in the AL, trailing only Detroit, the Yankees and Cleveland. Last year we finished 13th in the AL at 4.66 runs per game. We are on pace to score about 100 more runs than last year. Nice.

The M's, like the Angels, are heavily batting average driven. They are 2nd in the AL at .286. They don't walk much, in fact they are have the fewest walks in the league (even on a per game basis), but the high BA is keeping their OBP at a respectable 6th place. They don't hit for much power either, being 6th in the AL in SLG, but again that number, like their OBP is helped by that high batting average. In terms of Isolated power, which separates SLG from Avg, they rank just 9th.

They are not running as much as last year, so the offense is largely dependent on high batting averages and just enough power to keep things moving. Whether an average driven offense is sustainable is an open question, but this is a positive post, so lets just say, woo singles! Keep hitting em boys!

Who are the surprises amongst the offensive players?

Kenji Johjima is a 31 year old catcher who set career highs in games played, innings caught and I'm sure miles travelled last year. I would have been pleasantly surprised to only have a slight falloff from last year's 291/332/451. Instead he is tearing the cover off the ball at 328/355/525. This more in line with the player he was in Japan, so whether he's more comfortable in the US this year or eating more Wheaties or whatever, he's been a godsend. By Baseball Prospectus' VORP stat, he's the third best catcher in the AL. Woot.

I have written in this space many times that Ichiro needs to hit 330 to be a truly elite player. Well he's at 336/392/448 and looking awesome in centerfield. The list of best CF's in the game has his name and Grady Sizemore's on it. That's it.

The Double Play Twins kind of symbolize the M's offense. YuBet is the 7 best SS by VORP, which again is pretty good for a kid known for his D, playing in a pretty extreme pitchers park, but he's very dependent on his batting average. At .301 he's 6th among AL shorts. Lopez is somewhere between the All-star he was the first half of last year and the out machine he was the second half. He's the 7th best second sacker in the league and thats good enough for now.

Jose Guillen was looking really good two weeks ago, but he has struggled in June. Overall he is hitting 263/333/421. Thats only 9th among AL rightfielders, but certainly better than the horror show that he was last year.

As for the rest of the offense, Beltre is Beltre. He's the 6th or 7th best offensive 3b in the league, but he has yet to hit one of his patented two week stretches where he carries the team. Ibanez has managed to keep his average and OBP respectable while punting almost all of his power (He's slugging .397!). Vidro has been a singles machine, not enough to be truly valuable, but not the giant sucking vortex of outs we imagined him to be. Sexson has been one of the worst first basemen in the league, even after his recent surge.

So that's the M's offense. Highly dependent on a high batting average, carried by two guys hitting the crap out of the ball and 3 guys in the upper half of the league. You also got 3 guys who aren't killing you and a first baseman who is REAL TALL. There is real reason for optimism here too, because while Kenji and Yuni might regress some in the next 2/3 of the season, Lopez, Ibanez, and Sexson could all easily improve. Ichiro is likely to continue being Ichiro, which is awesome.

We'll talk about the pitching next post, but if they keep hitting like this, this club might be better than I thought.

...and Matt Mangini

2007-06-07T14:55:00.000-07:00

With the supplemental round pick at #52 overall, the M's have selected Oklahoma State 3B Matt Mangini. He rocked the Cape last summer (a wood bat league where he won the batting title), but had a disappointing year in college this year, so his stock had slipped considerably. He's a lefty who is big (6'4"), and who scouts think should develop power. That's right, M's fans. Left-handed sock.

I can't quibble too much with this pick; we could use a project at 3B, and Mangini is intriguing due to his success with wood against high-level competition.

Welcome Phillippe Aumont!

2007-06-07T12:11:00.000-07:00

An excellent pick by the Mariners' brass at 11 overall, young Mr. Aumont resembles nothing so much as a right-handed Randy Johnson. Here's to a quick signing and rapid development (injury free!) of our newest draft pick.

Giddy? Up.

2007-06-06T07:58:00.000-07:00

It merits comment that the M's have now won four straight and are five games over .500.

Yeah!

The big question, of course, is this: "is this for real?"

Well, the offense certainly seems to be. The Mariners are fifth in the AL in runs scored/game, roughly 8% better than the league average of 4.82. Kenji Johjima, Ichiro!, Jose Guillen, Adrian Beltre, and bench players Ben Broussard and Jamie Burke are all contributing to that pace, while Jose Lopez and Yuniesky Betancourt are not hurting the team. That's a solid offense, and this far into the season, it looks a lot more real than it might have in April.

Consequently, despite the collapse of Raul Ibanez and Big Sexy, and the futility that is Jose Vidro, Seattle's offense could genuinely expect to contend in a weak AL West.

Meanwhile, the pitching continues to be the question mark. This has been true...ever since we started this blog, and throughout Bill Bavasi's tenure. Seattle's pitching staff as a whole has allowed the fifth-most runs/game of any team in the AL. That's bad. Indeed, it's like the pitchers are giving back everything that the offense takes, leaving the team as a slightly above .500 ballclub. We've scored 287 runs while allowing only 273, so our 30-25 record is right about where we should be.

Whoa! So even if the slumping Sexson fails to recover; even if Rauuuuul can't defeat age or his mystery shoulder injury; even if our DH is Jose Vidro rather than a real MLB starter; and even if we keep throwing awful starters at least 60% of the time--even if all these things continue to be true--then this club looks like it should achieve a .500 record?! Or better???!

I'm astonished. I'll take back one or two of the mean things I've said thus far this season.

Before the season, I was convinced that the offseason insanity had positioned the Mariners to OWN last place, again. Happily, the Rangers suck, so that brought the discussion to third place, but still.

Next question: what can we achieve? Seattle stands 5.5 games behind the Angels, who sport the second-best pitching staff in the AL plus league-average run scoring. Can we hope to catch them, fend off the Rangers, and sneak into the playoffs in 2007?

Coolstandings.com is rather pessimistic about the M's chances: despite the current standings, we are given only a 12.4% chance to take the division, while the A's have a 22.1% chance. This projection is based solely on the 2007 runs scored/allowed figures, simulated over millions of actual remainders of the season. This mechanical method of prediction cannot account for lineup changes, injuries, trades, hot streaks, etc., but it does suggest that there remains the fundamental problem with the team as a contender: our pitching rotation sucks (hey, I think we've mentioned that once or twice on the blog this year).

So to remain in contention, Bill Bavasi must come up with a better starting rotation. After the King (who's having his own difficulties, not least of which is the herd of Perfectly Normal Beasts continually running right through his domain) and the rejuvenated (juvenated?) Jarrod Washburn, we have diddly squat. The way they've performed so far, Batista/HoRam/BadWeaver/Baek/cast of thousands couldn't win in AAA.

There are two ways to improve the pitching staff. One is to get better pitchers to replace the horrible ones we have. (This involves trading, and Mr. Bavasi has shown little aptitude for that. Let's just not go there.) The other would be to magically transform some of our awful pitchers into major-league quality starters.

There is, ahhh, SOME hope that this second course of action might work. I mean, Batista's 5.43 ERA has to come down, right? His FIP is 4.46, right in line with his 2006 season, in which he posted a 4.58 ERA. He's not walking more, nor striking out less, batters than his recent seasonal rates suggest he should. He COULD be a real #3 starter for this team.

Now, the final two rotation slots are pretty much hopeless. You've all SEEN Ramirez and Weaver pitch. Baek and Feierabend are young and therefore we imagine that they have "upside," but these are not exactly staff saviors (yet) either.

So as giddy as I am about our exciting come-from-behind wins, our place in the standings, and the generally surprisingly good outcome through 5 June, I still harbor this lurking fear that the M's really don't stand much of a chance. Say the King and Batista both improve significantly. That leaves 40% of our remaining games to be started by AAA pitchers. Or Jeff Weaver. Ugh.

Aside from shifting to a 3-man starting rotation, I don't see how we can rest the full weight of our playoff hopes on the Teal and Northwest Green just yet.

Still, we're in a lot better position than I ever expected us to this season. Go M's!

Say what?

2007-05-29T19:13:00.000-07:00

Three games over .500 for the first time since 2003?

To put it in perspective, the following occured that year:

Oscar for best movie: Return of the King. Peter Jackson has since been embroiled in a lawsuit over accounting practices with respect to profits over Fellowship of the Ring and has been replaced as director of the upcoming movie, The Hobbit.

The Iraq war began on March 20, 2003, and presently has lasted longer than the U.S. involvement in World War II.

Roger Clemens reached the milestone marks of 300 wins and 4,000 strikeouts. He has since retired three times.

Barry Bonds swiped his 500th base, hit 45 homers and won his 6th NL MVP award. He's tagged 88 home runs since then, the same number Tino Martinez hit during his entire Mariner tenure. He's also injected 88 different spots on his hiney with - ahem - vitamin supplements.

Buddy Ebsen died at the ripe old age of 95. Funny that despite a career that lasted nearly 70 years, he was best known as the simple-minded rube grandfather from The Beverly Hillbillies.

You get the picture. 2003 was a long time ago. The M's have had longer periods of futility, but four years seems like an eternity. This cobbled-together, band-aided group of up-and-comers and dumpster-dives has performed better than one could reasonably expect to this point in the season.

One is tempted to offer at least tepid words resembling congratulatory sentiments to Messrs. Bavasi and Hargrove for the results. One would be highly premature to do so. The starting pitching is still a mess and many of the hitters are performing well above expectations. Sounds like my fantasy team.

I'm cautiously optimistic that the M's will stay within the periphery of the race for the A.L. West through the first half of the season. That's the most I can muster right now.

Brief Tribute to Batgirl

2007-05-26T08:10:00.000-07:00

As many of you probably already know, one of the very best MLB-team-oriented blogs on the planet, Batgirl, has come to an end. This is sad news, to be sure, for those of us (even non-Twins fans) who frequented the endlessly witty blog. The gimmicks (Legovision!) weren't gimmicky, the community of posters was as good as you find, and the constantly innovative and creative blogging about the team through good and bad was always worthwhile.

We can't hope to aspire to the kind of quality that Batgirl brought to blogging...at least, not until I get kicked off the authorship of Tatonka...but there is no question that she was one of many influences that got us blogging in the first place.

Indeed, I cannot offer as powerful a tribute here as has already been accumulated in hundreds of responses to Batgirl's announcement that she is done blogging, so go read through those, and add your two cents as well.

We salute you, Batgirl, and you will be missed.

How to Build a Winning Franchise: Part 1, Milwaukee Brewers

2007-05-22T07:51:00.000-07:00

The Brewers are of course a team that we love to hate, given that Milwaukee stole the Seattle Pilots in order to create this monstrosity. All of the horrible seasons for Milwaukee baseball fans is karmic retribution for their remorseless theft, and they deserve plenty more where that came from.

So we’re not remotely sad that after 28 pathetic seasons in the AL, and then the last 9 plus seasons in the easier NL, the Brew Crew has been able to muster only a single sustained run of winning, in which half of the 12 winning (.500 or better) seasons in franchise history occurred in the early 1980s. This run culminated in winning the AL East in the strike year of 1981, losing the ALDS to the Yankees, and then winning the American League pennant in 1982 by trouncing the California Angels in the ALDS, only to lose to Whitey Herzog’s St. Louis Cardinals in a World Series that was at the same time close and exciting, and yet filled with blowouts. (The Brew Crew won their games 10-0, 13-1, and 7-5, but lost it all in the heartbreaking later innings of Game 7).

That’s it for the Brewers. Outside of 1981-2, they’ve NEVER been to the playoffs. They’re not a model of anything in baseball outside of “how to splash a mascot into a beer stein” or “how to have a mascot race,” which are both the same kind of minor-league that Milwaukee deserves.

Yet it is precisely because of the Brewers’ history of ineptness that Seattle fans, or fans of equally poorly-run organizations, might look to the Brewers for some instruction on how to build a winning team. You may not have noticed, but like the Cleveland Indians in Major League, the Brewers are suddenly a contender. Moreover, as of this writing they possess a 6 ½ game lead over both the Houston Astros and the Chicago €ub$, sporting a 28-17 record. We’re over one-quarter of the way through the 2007 championship season, and the Brewers are for real in the NL Central.

So how have they done it? As a “small market” team (their 2007 payroll is clear up to ~$71M, nearly double what it was just two seasons ago; the 2007 Forbes figures of franchise value mark the Brewers as the fifth-least valuable MLB franchise around, at only $287M), the Brewers under GM Doug Melvin have steadily accumulated the major league roster through the farm system, trades, and limited, minor free agent signings. The Brewers have not had the resources to compete for the stars on the open market, but they have enjoyed good fortune in their prospect development. Let’s look at the various pieces of the team to get a blueprint (a purpleprint?) of how it’s done:

Almost the entire batting order represents shrewd drafting and luck (a combination that is necessary with prospects; they just don’t always pan out, no matter how “can’t miss” they are). Except for the catcher (Johnny Estrada, acquired in a six-player trade last winter) and the third basemen (where it’s a good thing that top prospect Ryan Braun is on the way, because this is the one sucking chest wound for the current offense), all of the everyday starters have been drafted and developed by the Brewers. Even wily veteran left-fielder Geoff Jenkins was a first-round draft pick by Milwaukee in 1995; center-fielder Bill Hall was selected in the sixth round in 1998, and then Corey Hart (2000), J.J. Hardy (2001), Prince Fielder (2002), and Rickie Weeks (2003) came along in the last decade. The last three players mentioned, now the good three-quarters of the infield, were all top-10 overall draft picks. Add in bench player Tony Gwynn, Jr., and it is evident that the Brewers have done a top-notch job of building an offense through the amateur draft.

This, of course, is the result of all those years of sucking. You don’t get back-to-back-to-back top-10 selections unless your team sucks ass for a long, long time. Way to go, Milwaukee! (Seattle’s rapidly approaching that marker, by the way.)

Meanwhile, the pitching staff is almost entirely built out of other teams’ castoffs. The big exception is SP Ben Sheets, who was another top-10 pick, this time in the 1999 draft (quick: name a year in which the Brewers did NOT select in the top 10). Sheets has had injury problems throughout his career, but when healthy he’s an ace atop the starting rotation. Of the other twelve pitchers who have faced batters for Milwaukee in 2007, seven (7!!) were acquired by trade, two more via the waiver wire, and only two signed as free agents.

Indeed, the big deviation from the pattern of building from within was a Tatonka-like signing of free-agent starter Jeff Suppan on Christmas Eve 2006. I thought little of Soup coming into the season, and wouldn’t have wanted to add him to the Mariners roster (although I must admit that I would have preferred him to the guys we DID acquire, but that’s COMPLETELY another story). But that signing (4 years, $42 million, plus club option on 2011) brought in a 12-year veteran with World Series experience and a career of league-average ERA. So far in 2007, he’s posted a shiny 3.49 ERA while facing 280 batters in 10 games. That’s been best on the Brewers’ staff, and he leads the team with 6 wins.

Like drafting and the limited free agent purchases, Melvin’s trades have generally worked out, as well. Key players Johnny Estrada, Dave Bush, Chris Capuano, Claudio Vargas, and Francisco Cordero were all acquired by trade, as were lesser players such as Kevin Mench, Tony Graffanino, Gabe Gross, Brian Shouse, Carlos Villanueva, and Greg Aquino. The future was never mortgaged to get these guys—even when trading quality players like Richie Sexson or Lyle Overbay—and as well as Cordero has pitched thus far in 2007, none of these acquisitions are superstars who might be expected to lead a team to a pennant. Yet they’re contributing to a team that suggests, all of a sudden, that Doug Melvin is many, many standard deviations higher than Bill Bavasi in [insert pretty much any baseball- or intellect-related category here].

So how has this team performed on the field? With 218 runs scored and 192 runs allowed, the Brewers are 8^th in MLB in offense (3^rd in the NL, behind the Mets and Phillies), and 10^th in the majors in pitching (7^th in the NL). Honestly, that’s a dream outcome for a team built in this fashion. You can never COUNT on even the Delmon Youngs or Alex Gordons of the world to be ready to pound major-league pitching at any particular time. (This is why both Griffey and A-Rod were so special for us: you COULD count on them to be stars right away.) And indeed, it has taken players like Weeks and Hardy some development time and growing pains in the majors before they got to the point they’re at now. Some of the waiting has been offset by the diamond-in-the-rough discovery that is Bill Hall, who was never expected to perform as well as he has. But now that the waiting appears to be over for these players (I’ll say appears: remember how young Jose Lopez was hitting just one year ago?), they are not only carrying the very productive Brewer offense, but are also young and inexpensive to employ, so they have turned into that most valuable commodity in the world of baseball: solid contributors under the team’s control cheaply for their most productive seasons.

Alright, so if this is the model that is the 2007 Milwaukee Brewers, what can the Mariners front office learn here? Our offense differs considerably from Milwaukee’s. Only Jose Lopez was developed from within the organization, while seven of the nine everyday starters were brought in as free agents (two from Japan, one from Cuba, and the rest from the majors). And of course, Turbo was acquired by trade. That unit is scoring runs at a lower rate than Milwaukee’s offense, to the tune of only 4.4 runs per game (compared to the Brewers’ rate of 4.8). Had Seattle played as many games thus far as Milwaukee, we ought to rank in the middle of the pack in offense.

So far, only Kenji Johjima, Ichiro! Suzuki, and Jose Guillen have performed above average (as measured by OPS+; check out Baseball-Reference.com), whereas only two Brewers starters (the two-headed 3B ToCraigNy CounsGraffaellenino, and RF Corey Hart) have performed below average.

League-average offense would probably be acceptable, if only we could offset that with awesome pitching and defense. After all, the Brewers are getting by with slightly above league-average pitching to go with their excellent hitting. But alas, our hitting is the STRENGTH of the team. Like the Brew Crew, every single starter but one was signed as a free agent or acquired in trade. Unlike the Brewers, however, it would have been pretty challenging to construct a worse starting rotation than the one the Mariners are running out there. (Way to go, M’s!) Seattle is coughing up over 5 runs per game, putting us about 5^th or 6^th worst in the entire major leagues. (We appear to be in the middle of the pack, if you look at runs allowed totals, but that is an artifact of the week of snowouts earlier this season.)

So, if Milwaukee’s success could inspire us to believe in these here Mariners, giving in to that temptation would be a rather foolish mistake. Our team has neither been constructed like the Brewers (our key players are on the wrong side of the aging curve because they’ve been acquired via free agency rather than developed in-house), nor is it really performing anything like Milwuakee’s team. Our drafting over the last decade has been, well, atrocious. Trades have returned less than we’ve given away. Free agents routinely have failed to pan out. Indeed, the one lesson we MIGHT learn from the Brewers, “hire a competent GM and give him the organization’s backing,” is not one that the decision-makers associated with the M’s appear to be willing to learn.

To be sure, no matter how doomed we are, I’ll never root for the Brewers. But we’re doomed.

Tatonka's Favorite Mariners Series #4: Jay Buhner

2007-05-21T14:14:00.001-07:00

Bone.

It’s hard to quantify Jay Buhner. Oh, sure, he accomplished some significant statistical milestones as the right fielder of the Mariners in the 1980s and 90s. He launched 310 HR (all but three with Seattle), drove in 965 runs, and posted a .359 On Base Percentage for his career. All while possessing one of the finest RF arms in the game.

But Bone was all about personality. He was balding, he was funny, and he was by all accounts a true force in the clubhouse. He was able to puke on demand, and apparently used this talent when newer players were on the training table receiving treatment. He was a true locker room cutup, but also a fiery team leader. At one point in 1995 (September 9^th to be exact), the Mariners took over the wild card lead and the team re-organized the AL pennants in order of wild card standings, rather than divisional ones. This lasted all of one night as a furious Bone insisted they be put back. He wanted the team to focus on winning the division. As we all remember, the Mariners won their division that year and finished a game BEHIND the Yankees for the wild card. But all of these stories pale in comparison to Buhner’s lasting legacy as a Mariner, being the inspiration for one of the great marketing schemes of all time—Buhner Buzz Cut Night.

Somewhere I have photographic evidence of the personal impact of the first such event. When it was announced, all of us responded with such phrases as “that’s cool,” and “We’ve gotta go.” In the end, everyone else chickened out, and Brian came to the inaugural Buzz Cut Night to witness me and some 500 other fans have our heads shaved outside the Kingdome on the 19^th of May, 1994. In exchange for lopping off our hair, we got free tickets above the rightfield wall to cheer on our beloved Bone. A few years later, Tad, who had shaved his head for other reasons, did participate in the event, getting a high-five from Bone as he waited in line. Because Bone didn’t merely lend his name to the event. He actually shaved a few heads himself every year and spent hours outside talking to and encouraging the participants.

Two stories come out of my experience. First of all, I had fairly long locks at that point--past shoulder length--and although my hair wasn’t the longest that got buzzed, I did lose a lot of hair all at once. My appearance was so transformed that when I got home and saw my infant daughter, she was terrified of me, and wouldn’t let me hold her for a good couple of days.

But it was worth it. We got an exciting ballgame against the visiting Rangers. Seattle was down 4-0 by the top of the third, but then clawed back with a run in the third and two more in the fifth against Kevin Brown. Still down 4-3 in the ninth, we had the top of the order up, so even one baserunner would guarantee that Buhner, hitting fourth, would get to come to the plate. Two quick outs ensued, but then Cris Carpenter walked both Griffey and Buhner, and was relieved by Matt Whiteside. Game over—Mariners win 5-4 on a Mike (Rickey) Blowers walk-off walk.

Yeah! That victory put the M’s only 2 ½ back of the AL West-leading Rangers, with three more to play in the Dome that weekend against them.

This sequence of events led to my second story regarding Buzz Cut Night. You know that baseball players are superstitious…well, I figured that my presence with shaved head in the right field seats made a difference in the outcome, so I went back the next night. And the next. And the next. I saw that entire four-game series, always in the bleachers above the 23-foot wall in right. And we swept Texas!

Indeed, we put a hurting on the Rangers; that second night saw a 19-2 destruction of Texas, giving the Big Unit the win. I was there, and so was Bone, who went 4-for-4 with a double and 3 RBI. Another rout ensued on Saturday, as Buhner hit a HR to lead the M’s to a 13-2 victory. Finally, a “close” 8-2 game on Sunday saw young Roger Salkeld (remember him?) defeat the venerable Bruce Hurst. That game put Seattle in first place, half a game up on both the California Angels and the Texas Rangers. Whoo hoo!

If you’re a baseball fan, you have to like Jay Buhner. And if you’re a Seattle fan, he also represents one of the greatest trades in club history…Buhner came to Seattle from the Yankees in exchange for Digger, er, Kenny Phelps. We loved Phelps, to be sure, but any way you tally it up, this trade was a steal for the M’s. Phelps would play a little over a year for the Yankees before they flipped him to Oakland for the immortal Scott Holcomb. Phelps hit a total of 17 HR for the Bombers in that time. Of course the trade was immortalized on Seinfeld, when Frank Costanza, on being told by George Steinbrenner that his son might be dead, blurted out “What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for!!??”

So, sure, Bone was a great ballplayer. He had those three peak seasons just at the right time to contribute to the rise of the Mariners as a contender. 1995-7 saw him crush 40+ HR each season, and he got MVP votes in all three seasons.

But more importantly, he’s one of the best reasons to love the M’s, and he’s fourth on our list of Tatonka’s Favorite Mariners.

First versus last: a microcosm

2007-05-18T20:57:00.000-07:00

Generally speaking, there isn't all that much difference between the top teams and the cellar-dwellars when considered within the construction of a single game.

Watching the M's square off against the Padres tonight, one is reminded why the Mariners have been bottom feeders for three straight years while San Diego seeemingly has competed in the NL West since Ray Kroc was hiring greasy burger-flippers at the Golden Arches. Soft-throwing Chris Young tossed a smart, efficient game, throwing 105 pitches, his team up 4-1 when he was removed with two outs in the sixth. Miguel Batista, on the other hand, pitched what might be called another "gritty" outing, throwing 118 pitches in 6 2/3 innings (four typical consecutive Batista outings: gritty, gritty, bang, bang!). His stat line wasn't all that bad: 6 hits, 1 ER, 4 BB, 4 K's. And yet, another dispiriting loss for the books.

Why?

Starting pitching: The Padres understand the correct way to build a starting staff, manifesting ongoing success year after year. Chris Young is a solid #2 starter, acquired in a salary dump/injury dump move by proactive management. He may throw softer than my sister, but his 3.11 ERA and 38 K's in 46 1/3 innings says it all. Meaningwhile, Batista represents the M's #3 starter, acquired in a panicky move by Buh-bye-vasi via overpaying in a thin market. Decent game tonight notwithstanding, his ERA nearly touched 7.00 before the game started and he has just over half the K's of Young. The difference between a #2 and #3 starter should be incremental - not three standard deviations.

Relief pitching: San Diego: 1 2/3 IP, 0 ER's, 3 K's. Seattle: 2 1/3 IP, 4 ER's, 1 K. 'Nuff said.

Hitting: The game tonight was kinda close for a while, but the M's stranded baserunners with regularity. The big hit was non-existent. Meanwhile, the Padres made the most of their opportunities. Quod erat demonstratum: 11 hits for San Diego, 10 for Seattle. Close game? Nyet. 8-1, Padres.

Fielding: Both teams made an error, yet the gaffe by Beltre directly led to a four-run inning, whereas Cameron's was harmless. Bad teams have that kind of negative karma.

Intangibles: I certainly wouldn't call the bullpen rested, but leaving Reitsma in to get hammered when Davis, White and O'Flaherty were available seemed dubious. Putting the game in motion (four steals) was good, but getting virtually nothing out of it - not even by manufacturing runs with "small ball" - was most certainly not. Lastly, bad teams let good players beat them (Mike Cameron: 2/5, 2 RBI's), bad players get key hits (Russell Branyan: 3-run dinger) and slumping nobodies break out (Kevin Kouzmanoff: 1/2, 2 RBI's).

A fat pitch here, a big hit there, a bad decision here and there - it adds up to a typical night in Mariner-land. Wave bye-bye to .500, M's fans.

We're saved!!!!

2007-05-14T06:53:00.000-07:00

AlllllllRIGHT!!

Now the M's are GONNA WIN!!

Jason Davis is gonna put us OVER THE TOP. He shores up the sole weakness of the unstoppable M's...not enough JASONS on the team. We had two before (J.J.'s second "J" stands for the best name ever, of course), but with THREE JASONS, other teams will cower before our mighty JASONNESS.

We'll leave the rest of the American League West behind us. The other teams might as well just give us the division now. The only teams in the entire AL that MIGHT challenge us are the Blue Jays and the Twins, as revealed by the following expert analysis:

Number of Jasons on major-league roster: BOS 1, BAL 1, NYY 1, TOR 3, DET 1, CLE 1, CWS 0, MIN 3, KC 2, LAA 0, OAK 1, TEX 0, SEA 3.

Clearly, then, Seattle, Minnesota, and Toronto are on target to win their divisions, while the Royals will win the Wild Card. We're goin' to the playoffs, M's fans!!!!!!

Whoooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Horrible Quality Starts

2007-05-13T10:20:00.000-07:00

With Batista not making it out of the third last night, I wondered how many games our starters had given us no chance to win at all. Everyone is familiar with the "Quality Start" stat, I am interested in the Horrible Quality Start (HQS). I am defining it as going less than 5 innings and giving up 5 or more runs. My thought process being that if you go at least 5, no matter how awful, at least you haven't trashed the bullpen, and if you give up 4 or less, even if its only over 2 or 3 innings, at least the team is still in the game. With me?

So the M's have 6 HQS, 2 each from Batista, HoRam and Weaver the Elder (and suckier). Within our division only Texas has more, with 8. The Angels have just 3 and the A's none. None!

But we're even worse on a percentage basis because of all the rainouts (snowouts). The Angels 3 HQS came over 37 games (8%) while ours came over just 32 (19%). We're only 3 percentage points behind the Rangers(22%).

We're 16-16 and just two and a half games out of first place. But we can't really hope to contend punting 1 out of every 5 starts. Our offense just isn't that good.

When will the hurting stop?

2007-05-12T19:52:00.000-07:00

I haven't posted much recently, and that's probably for the best. I'm truly, truly disgusted by the Mariners organization. But I still have the urge to respond to the disaster that is Bill Bavasi's leadership of a team that I care about, so here's this week's rant:

Hey, fellow Seattle sports fans! Remember this little gem from the P-I on 31 January, 2007:

Weaver and Batista were among the top six starters the Mariners targeted back in October, Bavasi said.

"If you told me we were going to get two of these guys, I would have been very, very happy," he said. "And I am happy."

Let's just take us a gander at two of the "top six" starting pitchers targeted by Bill Bavasi in the offseason, shall we?

Number One (sadly, not the cool, cat-owning villainous head of S.P.E.C.T.R.E., Ernst Stavro Blofeld, unless maybe it's the pathetic Telly Savalas version):

Jeff Weaver 0-6, FOURTEEN POINT THREE TWO e.r.a., despite only 4 HR allowed in 22 IP.

Number Two (sadly, not the funny spoof of a villain's henchman playing a savvy second fiddle to Mike Myers's spoof of Blofeld in the Austin Powers series):

Miguel Batista 3-3 (I'm assuming that the M's can't recover from the touchdown he coughed up to the Yankees tonight), 6.52 ERA, with decent peripherals (10 BB/22 K, averaging nearly 6 IP/G), but...ugh.

Really? THESE were your INTENDED targets this offseason? Serious? And I'm supposed to support this franchise without question.

Look, I went to a game at ~~Bell~~ ~~South Park~~ AT&T Field in Chattanooga last night, and I had more fun there, for eight bucks (yeah, I splurged for seats three rows from the field), with impending rain at any time (no roof!), and with zero real major league prospects in sight, than I have had at any point this season rooting for these Mariners. (Hey, come to think of it, the zero real major league prospects line might work at the Safe...nahh, they usually play a major league opponent...). I've been following the minors more and more closely in the last couple of years, and I'll be perfectly happy waiting out the stupidity of Bavasi & Co. while finding other things to occupy my time.

Does that make me a poor fan? I guess that after over 20 straight years of pretty rabid M's-fan-ness, I just can't take the incompetence any more. I love the game of baseball, and I'll continue to follow it. I'll even continue to root for the M's, write blog entries (less and less frequently, it seems...the Mariners are just sucking the life right out of my fandom), and watch them when I can (without giving them any more money...they'd just waste it, and I can do that on my own).

The thing is, there is this huge disconnect between the talent on the team, and the record through 32 games. We're at .500, and that must be good, right? Entering today, that put us in the company of only 6 other AL teams. The average fan is probably pretty happy with a .500 record in a weak division, and they are likely getting excited about the apparent signs of life.

Sigh.

Folks, we have two legitimate major league starting pitchers. One's hurt. The other one is a tick above league average, in the long run. Plus, we have Number One, and Number Two. Those are perfect euphemisms, I think. Even if everything goes right the rest of the way, we have no hope.

I can hear it now: What do you mean we have no hope? Not only are we a contender right now, but look! The Brewers are doing well! See...evidence that crappy teams like the Mariners can rise from the cesspool of decades of incompetence, and challenge for the division crown!

Sigh.

I'll do a series of posts on what competent organizations have done to build winning teams, and we'll go ahead and start with Milwaukee, but I would submit that of all the mistakes that Bavasi has made, the biggest ones have to do with his seeming inability to evaluate talent--his primary job as GM. The quote about Weaver and Batista is just the tip of the iceberg there, and no amount of him being a "good guy" redeems him in this situation. He can be a good guy and a crappy GM, and...this just in: he is! In a cage match between Bill Bavasi and Wayne Krivsky in which victory would be awarded for the first hint of a positive move toward building a winning major league club, we'd end up with a locked cage and two moldy skeletons. But they'd be really NICE skeletons.

M's cut bait, kinda

2007-05-12T12:10:00.000-07:00

So the Mariners put Jeff Weaver on the DL instead of just cutting him. Generally the Bavasi regime has been pretty quick to dump a guy once its clear he's done. Boone, Olerud, Everett and others have all gotten their walking papers, maybe not as quickly as we would have liked, but pretty quickly.

That makes this move a little strange, because I don't think anyone thinks there is anything wrong with Weaver. Here's the word from Billy Bavs:

Jeff is a guy that won't complain about anything and just takes the baseball. It become obvious to us when he needed to reach back for that little something extra, his arm strength just wasn't there.

Hmmm. I don't think there has been anything to reach back for in quite a while.