Saturday, June 25, 2005

Schmidt anyone?

The Mariners have split so far in SD, a 14-5 smackdown that saw Boone come up a homer short of the cycle and Morse raise his average over .400 with a 3-3 night, and a 8-5 loss where Sele gave up 8 runs in 4 innings.

How long before Morse's hot streak gets big enough to start revising forecasts for him? He hit .281 and slugged .525 at AA last year, but his 90% projection by BP's PECOTA system was 280/330/460. Its going to take a pretty major slump to get down to that...

We have commented that there is hope for the M's offense next year, but little in the way of pitching help. With no big names available on the free-agent market, the M's may have to pursue a pitcher through trade. Rumors (rumours for our Canadian friends) abound regarding Giants ace Jason Schmidt. SF GM Brian Sabean denies that he is looking to trade Schmidt. But he wouldn't be the first GM to do a little, ahem, dissembling on such matters. The Giants are 12 games under .500, Bonds isn't coming back anytime soon and Schmidt has a 10.5 million dollar option for next season.

Schmidt has been a serious stud the last two years, posting VORPs of 75 and 60. He's been hurt for much of this year, but seems to be rounding into form. He is 32 and can be expected to decline over the next few years, plus he is only under contract for one more year. On the other hand his closest PECOTA comparables are Roger Clemens, Jack Morris, Tom Seaver and Curt Schilling, 3 Hall of Famers and all of whom aged just a bit better than say, Mike Reno. He's a Washington native and it wouldn't be out of the question for him to sign here when for 2007 especially if the M's look like they might be competitive.

I'm guessing it'll take 2-3 good prospects to get him. But the Mariners have a little depth to deal from. A package that included Choo or Snelling, one of the many shortstops (Morse, Jones, Tui, Cabrera), and a random lower minors hard thrower wouldn't be a bad deal at all in my opinion. A 2006 rotation of Schmidt, Hernandez, Piniero, and Meche is starting to look pretty decent. Most of the teams that will be trading for Schmidt are looking at this year. But the M's should look at him for 2006 and beyond.


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