Saturday, January 21, 2006

New Beginnings, Part II

Having looked at the transmogrification of the Mariners into…Spam Surprise…we might profitably ask ourselves how the competition has changed over the winter.

What about the only team we really have a hope of struggling past this season, the Texas Rangers? They have had a busy offseason, christening a new GM and setting him loose on the FA and trade markets. The resulting changes, at least at this point in time, look mostly as follows:

Second base will switch from Alfonso Soriano to a spring competition between veterans D’Angelo Jimenez and Mark DeRosa, and rookie Ian Kinsler. This leaves the atrocious defense of Michael Young at short, but removes Soriano’s bad defense from second, so even with a hitting downgrade, defense might mean that this ends up being not as catastrophic a move as it could have been. Moreover, this move is of a piece with…

Adding Brad Wilkerson into the outfield mix. Now David Dellucci, Sarge Jr., Kevin Mench, and Laynce Nix will make way for a pretty solid addition to the outfield, both offensively and defensively. Wilkerson had a down season in 2005, to be sure, but he may replace Soriano’s bat just fine.

1b/DH hopeful Adrian Gonzalez was shipped to San Diego in a trade for pitching. Given the state of the Rangers’ pitching staff, this was a good idea, but GM Daniels also sent off a young, cheap, effective starting pitcher in the deal, so the trade has been widely questioned by Rangers fans. Therefore, we cheer it. Texas added starter Adam Eaton (last year of arbitration) and aging Japanese reliever Akinori Otsuka (and a low-level catching prospect) at the expense of Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young, along with young outfielder Terrmel Sledge.

A second new starting pitcher was added by means of swapping Ricardo Rodriguez to the Phillies for Vicente Padilla. Now, if you look at Padilla’s numbers for the entire 2005 season, he looks pretty bad, but I would suggest that the latter half of the season saw his performance (ERA, wins, etc.) more closely matching his above-average peripheral numbers, so there is some reason to think that this is an upgrade of sorts. This was mostly a money-oriented deal, it seems, for Philly GM Pat “got to sign Ryan Franklin to a multimillion dollar deal” Gillick…as Padilla was eligible for arbitration. Just think about that…the Phillies essentially swapped Padilla out for Franklin. Yikes.

A third member of the 2006 rotation was signed to a monster FA deal. Kevin Millwood will now earn $12M a year for at least the next four, and quite possibly the next five years at ages 31, 32, 33, 34, and 35. He had a great 2005, but an up-and-down career beforehand, including some injury issues. This signing is just as bad as the Washburn deal for our M’s. Partially it reflects the weird market this offseason, but partially it smells of desperation on Daniels’s part. Mostly it smells of money.

The weak bullpen is of course bolstered by the arrival of Otsuka, giving the Rangers pitchers to count on in the 8th and 9th innings, but not really much before.

This is a great deal of change, and the results might be projected in this fashion:

Best case (for the Rangers): 875-900 runs scored (as the offense stays solid), and the new pitching staff limits runs allowed to the neighborhood of 820, which would require at LEAST two of the starting pitchers to experience breakthrough seasons in which they established previously unsuspected levels of performance. This would result in something around an 88-89 win season, which would shoot Texas well past the Mariners and into the division hunt.

Worst case (and frankly, a lot more likely): They still score in bunches, and put about 850 runs on the scoreboard themselves. But their pitchers conform pretty much to their historical trends, and surrender more like 900 runs. Twenty different pitchers record major league service time for the club in 2006, with none of them particularly effective outside of Francisco Cordero. This team still wins about 76 games.

Catastrophe: Mark Teixeira gets hurt seriously, Hank Blalock continues his mysterious decline without rebounding, and the offense can’t maintain its usual high level of production. This is the only scenario in which the M’s can reasonably expect to pass the Rangers for third place in 2006.

26 days to pitchers and catchers…

Tuesday, January 17, 2006

Wee Willie Whee!

As the icing to the cake of this scrumpdili-icious offseason, we get two more years of Willie Bloomquist.

Bloomquist hit .257/289/333 with an OPS of 622. Despite getting the most At-bats of his career these numbers are all worse than his career numbers (which are admittedly skewed by his stellar 33 at-bat spetember in 2002.

Willie has some value. He plays a lot of postions. He's an outstanding base stealer. There is no reason to pay any more than the league minimum for that. There is no reason to guarantee a second year for that. It is utterly ridiculous.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

New Beginnings

It's a new year, and thus, having passed the expiration date of most New Year's Resolutions, we can safely begin to ask questions about how the offseason has gone, what the future holds for the Mariners, and just how cranky we at Tatonka are likely to be in 2006.

That is, we ask the musical question, "DOES hope spring eternal?"

This is likely to be a series, since I can't tackle all of this question today. Therefore, we begin today with some reflections on Bill Bavasi's job this winter. Sure, there's still plenty of offseason left (hey, Jeff Weaver's still available), but Bavasi has also more or less announced that the M's are done spending money this year.

Let's review exactly what's happened thus far:

Catcher: subtract starter Yorvit Torrealba, add starter Kenji Johjima
Left Field: move de facto starter Mike Morse to bench, add DH Raul Ibanez
Designated Hitter: Carl Everett takes Ibanez's spot at DH
Bench: strengthened by additions of Morse, Matt Lawton, DFA of Greg Dobbs.
Starting Rotation: subtract Ryan Franklin, add Jarrod Washburn. Felix gets an entire season.
Bullpen: subtract Shigetoshi Hasegawa and Jeff Nelson, add healthy Rafael Soriano.

This set of changes, while not so momentous as last year (even if the price tag was in the same neighborhood), should have some net positive effect. How much? That is the question indeed.

I earlier speculated that the new-look 2006 Mariners could expect to win precisely 74 games. Let's take a guess at best-case and worst-case scenarios:

Richie gets hurt (again), making Lawton an everyday player and Ibanez an everyday firstbaseman. Meanwhile, Beltre does NOT rebound to anything better than last season. Felix struggles in his sophomore campaign, while the rest of the rotation plays about as we might expect them to. No everyday player really has a stellar season.

Result: we score about 700 runs on offense (just like 2005), and the pitching sucks to the tune of 850 runs allowed (just like 2005), giving us another miserable season (somewhere in the neighborhood of 65-97).

NO major injuries strike, and the pitchers especially come through to limit the runs allowed to our opponents. Felix wins his first Cy Young, Moyer only pitches at the Safe, Washburn doesn't suck as much as he could, and even Joel looks serviceable now that he's at the bottom of the rotation.

Result: we score closer to 800 than 700 runs, while we allow only about 775 runs to score. That's got the makings of an 81-81 campaign.

I'm afraid that the best case here is a pipe dream, a flight of fancy. In that rarified air, we could imagine a few extra wins here and there, but we can't really wish this team into being a contender.

The question is this: are we happy with a .500 season in 2006? What help is on the way that will allow us to turn the corner in 2007? More importantly, can we live with another season approaching 100 losses?


Thursday, January 05, 2006

Magic Forty Three

Welcome, belatedly, to 2006. Through an odd combination of a too-short Christmas break with the weird, no-bowl-games-on-New-Years'-Day beginning to the year, I must admit to being somewhat out of synch, and unready for the year.

Let me put this in a helpful perspective:

Pitchers and catchers report in 43 days!

That is all.